【英日併記】賢い人たちがアベノミクスにまんまと騙された理由｜ウィリアム・ペセック（バロンズアジア）完全版

掲載経緯

2016年8月19日、投資情報専門誌『バロンズ』アジア版エグゼクティブエディターのウィリアム・ペセック氏が同名の記事を会員専用記事として掲載した。8月22日、ジャパンタイムズ（JT）が内オプエドとして同じ記事を掲載。今回はJT版を先に見つけたが『バロンズ』の記事はやはり会員専用のため閲覧できなかったので内容の差異は不明。とくに理由はないのだが今回は英日併記にしている。ペセック氏はコラム記事は超ラフに書くので今回も超訳というスタイルをとった。

はじめに

超訳本編

Shinzo Abe doesn’t wear a wizard’s hat. Nor is the prime minister known to be skilled in sorcery, voodoo or hypnosis. And yet somehow Abenomics entranced millions for nearly three years, none more so than the MBA set in New York and London that should have known better.

Western investment banks beefed up Tokyo staffs, stamped “buy” ratings on Nikkei stocks and raced out reports on Japan triumphing over deflation. Foreign journalists suddenly became Japan experts.

Brookings couldn’t plan Abenomics-is-brilliant seminars fast enough. Nobel laureates toasted the Abe effect around the globe. In May 2013, Paul Krugman penned a New York Times column headlined “Japan the Model.”

Such euphoria seems like a long, long time ago as Abenomics fails every key metric. Even exports, the growth engine to which Abe tended the most, have fallen for 10 straight months — the worst streak since the 2008 subprime crisis.

That pledges for 2 percent inflation, higher wages, increased competitiveness, a corporate governance revolution and empowering women fell woefully short shouldn’t be a surprise to longtime readers of this column.

My skepticism stemmed from covering Abe’s botched 2006-2007 premiership. Then, too, he pulled a bait and switch, talking big about revival but putting all his energy into amending the Constitution. His unimaginative Abenomics blueprint also ignored key problems like deflationary demographics and rigid labor laws.

My point isn’t to say “I told you so,” but to explore one of modern economics’ most tantalizing riddles: