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- いいね！0
Victor 🌌
@victor_astro
0.0109 ± 0.0003 mag/day (the current rate is actually at 0.0105). So, the next maximum magnitude which could be expected was 1.55 ± 0.12. Currently, Betelgeuse magnitude is around 1.40, which is still below the 1-sigma prediction which we could make using past data. 7/10
2020-01-06 07:19:58
Victor 🌌
@victor_astro
BREAKING NEWS! #Betelgeuse seems to have stopped fainting and is brightening pretty fast! It stopped fainting at a minimum magnitude of ~1.64, which is around what I predicted some days ago. Want to know more? Read this little thread! @starstrickenSF @_cingraham @JPMajor 1/7 pic.twitter.com/uJit0WvIA0
2020-01-30 07:40:39
拡大
Victor 🌌
@victor_astro
According to the two latest V-band magnitude reports on AAVSO, Betelgeuse is getting brighter. Why should we trust this data? It comes from two independent observers, both using precise methods, and having a history of never over/underestimating magnitudes. 2/7 pic.twitter.com/aLthuAWBOr
2020-01-30 07:40:46
拡大
Victor 🌌
@victor_astro
The minimum magnitude seems to have been reached around the 27th, with a value of 1.64, as I predicted it in this thread (twitter.com/chmn_victor/st…), where I said that it would start brightening after reaching a magnitude of 1.55±0.12. Now, the question is: who should we trust? 3/7
2020-01-30 07:40:47
Victor 🌌
@victor_astro
CTOA is the most precise observer. With low uncertainties, it never over/underestimated values. PTOB has always been precise, but sometimes his values seem a bit off. However, if CTOA is right on his magnitude, it would mean that Betelgeuse is brightening at 4/7
2020-01-30 07:40:47
Victor 🌌
@victor_astro
a rate of -0.045 mag/day. That’s EXTREMELY fast. 4 times faster than the last fainting rate, which was also exceptional. If it really brightens that fast, it will reach a mag of -6.5 at the end of July: impossible. 5/7
2020-01-30 07:40:48
Victor 🌌
@victor_astro
If we trust PTOB, the rate would be around -0.02 mag/day. That’s more realistic, however, that would still mean a mag of -2 in July: Betelgeuse would be the brightest star in the sky… but would be unobservable, because behind the Sun. 6/7
2020-01-30 07:40:48
Victor 🌌
@victor_astro
The next few days will be important for calculating the precise brightening rate and predicting the next maximum brightness of Betelgeuse, which could be exceptionally high. But sorry, no #supernova incoming (normally)... Thanks for reading and for RTs! 7/7
2020-01-30 07:40:49
Lambda
@Lambda86514703
ついにベテルギウスが増光に転じたか！？ 次報を見ないとなんともですが、ベテルギウスの次の増光が -2〜-6.5等の大増光になるかも、とか。ほんまかいな。 まあ、動きをよく見た方が良さそうです。 twitter.com/chmn_victor/st…
2020-01-30 12:37:02