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uchida_kawasaki
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- いいね！4
内田
@uchida_kawasaki
新型コロナ、ＷＨＯ報告の２倍以上の速度で感染拡大－米研究所 - Bloomberg bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/…
2020-04-09 13:42:15
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
🚨New higher R0 from CDC reanalysis... it’s a 5.7!🚨(95% Confidence Interval: 3.8–8.9). Wowzers. This much higher #SARSCoV2 R0 value carries lot of implications for vaccines and treatments and containment measures needed. 📌Thread 🧵 #COVID19 wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26… pic.twitter.com/rVWZPojMxO
2020-04-08 22:02:09
拡大
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
2) Implications: “The R0 values we estimated have important implications for predicting the effects of pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions. EG, threshold for combined vaccine efficacy & herd immunity needed for disease extinction is calculated as 1 – 1/R0. #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/DDPL78s9Nn
2020-04-08 22:04:06
拡大
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
3) “At R0 = 2.2, this threshold is only 55%. But at R0 = 5.7, this threshold rises to 82% (i.e., >82% of the population has to be immune, through either vaccination or prior infection, to achieve herd immunity to stop transmission).” #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/ePGpVlYGYD
2020-04-08 22:04:54
拡大
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
4) “Results show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic persons can be effective when the fraction of unidentified persons is low. However, when 20% of transmission is driven by unidentified infected, high levels of social distancing efforts will be needed” #COVID19
2020-04-08 22:06:26
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
5) this highlights the importance of early and effective surveillance, contact tracing, and quarantine! ➡️ Translation: we need to now be even more vigilant than previously thought given the higher revised R0. #COVID19
2020-04-08 22:08:04
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
6) “recent study based on structural analysis of the virus particles suggests SARS-CoV-2 has a much higher affinity to the receptor needed for cell entry than the 2003 SARS virus, providing a molecular basis for the high infectiousness of #SARSCoV2. #COVID19
2020-04-08 22:08:43
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
7) Note that this R0 is much higher than the recent Imperial College review of published R0 of 3.87. Ergo, a 5.7 is on considerably different level of infectiousness. #COVID19 imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial… pic.twitter.com/EO0UAKsNqF
2020-04-08 22:17:59
拡大
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
8) clarifying that this is from a Los Alamos group’s reanalysis. But posted on CDC’s journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.
2020-04-08 22:38:53
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
9) And to be clear, R0 is the R reproductive number at time 0 before countermeasures. So this is not the R(effective) at current time under mitigation like distancing and testing+tracing+quarantine.
2020-04-08 22:44:41
金王坂兵衛
@KNZ48
武漢における未介入(初期)状態のRo見積もりが米の政府系研究所で改訂されて5.6に。東京だともっと行くか。＃地獄 ＃オリンピックが憎い ＃安倍政権が憎い
2020-04-09 01:46:09
Dr. RawheaD
@RawheaD
ヒェッ……R-0 = 5.7。 95%信頼区間でも3.8 - 8.9って。 だれだよ、インフルより感染力低いって言ってたの┐(´~`;)┌ twitter.com/DrEricDing/sta…
2020-04-09 02:08:01
Dr. RawheaD
@RawheaD
参考までに、映画『CONTAGION』の後半部分で緊張感がグンと増す瞬間は、ウイルスがミューテーションの結果、R-0が増加して「４」になった時である。
2020-04-09 02:13:05
めめんと森ゝ and the ドリチョスラブラブズ💙💛
@iphiko_ezul
@RawheaD 死者数もこうですもんねえ...。インフルとは完全に違いますよね... twitter.com/balajis/status…
2020-04-09 06:47:20
Balaji
@balajis
COVID19 is not the flu. reddit.com/r/dataisbeauti… pic.twitter.com/oC16upiLnY
2020-04-07 20:05:26
Dr. RawheaD
@RawheaD
あと、これは俺は全然調査不足で知らないんだけど、現在の抗体検査って「調べました、14%が感染済みでした」なんて信頼持って言えるくらいのものがあるの？ これはそのまま、上海の研究に関しても言えることなんだろうけど。
2020-04-10 09:27:45
Dr. RawheaD
@RawheaD
更に、1/3の感染者が中和抗体量が低すぎて感染予防効果が「ない」とするならば、この数値はもっと高くないとならないよね？ 全然ほど遠いと思います、集団免疫。 twitter.com/RawheaD/status…
2020-04-10 09:24:35
Dr. RawheaD
@RawheaD
これはちょっと嫌なニュース。上海の研究者がコロナ回復者175人の血液を調べたところ、1/3の被験者で中和抗体の量がやたらと低くて、再感染予防になるかどうかに懸念が残るとのことだと。ワクチン開発にも影響しそうなデータ scmp.com/news/china/sci…
2020-04-08 11:46:18
Yoh Tanimoto
@yoh_tanimoto
A CDC study estimated R_0 ~ 5.7 (without intervention) wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26… Yet, the doubling time changes significantly depending on whether one uses the SIR model or the SEIR model (with incubation period) o.o jsxgraph.uni-bayreuth.de/wiki/index.php… jsxgraph.uni-bayreuth.de/wiki/index.php…
2020-04-09 03:03:02
kentarotakahashi
@kentarotakahash
これでも、新型コロナでは8割の患者は誰にもうつさない、と言い張るつもりかね？ wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26… pic.twitter.com/x8057K28w5
2020-04-09 08:37:19
拡大
kentarotakahashi
@kentarotakahash
全体でR0=5.7だったとしたら、5人に1人しかいない他人に感染させる能力を持つ感染者は、5.7×5=28.5人にうつしたということになる。（クラスター論者が主張する通りなら） pic.twitter.com/6UrOgSTUAC
2020-04-09 09:20:41
拡大