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ニューロドクター乱夢
@hichachu
Herd immunity by infection is not an option science.sciencemag.org/content/371/65… 集団免疫は、ウイルスが感染しやすい個体数を減らす免疫レベルの集団に遭遇するため、ウイルスが容易に広がらない場合に発生すると予想されます。この号の288ページで、Buss etal。（1）ブラジルのアマゾナス州の州都である
2021-01-16 02:10:16
Herd immunity by infection is not an option https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/230
ニューロドクター乱夢
@hichachu
マナウスでの、ほとんど制御されていない重症急性呼吸器症候群コロナウイルス2（SARS-CoV-2）の流行の程度を説明します。彼らのデータは、人口の推定76％が感染していても、集団免疫が達成されなかった、ほとんど緩和されていない発生の死亡率への影響を示しています。マナウスは、集団全体に広がる
2021-01-16 02:11:05
ニューロドクター乱夢
@hichachu
緩和されていないという注意深い例を示しており、高レベルの感染でも集団免疫が達成されない可能性が高く、許容できないほど高いコストがかかることを示しています。 SARS-CoVやMERS-CoVと同様に、このウイルスは積極的な抑制戦略で最適に対処されます（15）。政府は、より正確なNPI、堅牢なテスト
2021-01-16 02:13:40
ニューロドクター乱夢
@hichachu
/トレース/隔離システム、国境管理措置、大量テスト、より良い治療、およびワクチンの開発と提供に焦点を当てる必要があります（15）。これはパンデミックから抜け出す国にとって最も持続可能な道です。 science.sciencemag.org/content/371/65… Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon
2021-01-16 02:16:10
Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/288
Noguchi Akio
@Derive_ip
自然感染による集団免疫は選択肢になり得ないというScienceの記事。今回わかったことは、ブラジルのマウナスでは人口の76％が感染しても集団免疫は達成できなかったとのこと。沖縄県の一部の人などは集団免疫に期待しているみたいですが、どう考えても無理筋です。 science.sciencemag.org/content/371/65…
2021-01-16 07:01:00
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
The Brazil 🇧🇷 Manaus #COVID19 epidemic is getting epically worse. And many scientists suspect it might be because of the new Brazil P1 variant of #SARSCoV2, which has many multiple mutations. Quick thread 🧵 theguardian.com/world/2021/jan…
2021-01-15 20:19:36
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
2) Brazil has been hit really hard already. In Oct 2020, someone estimated Manaus 🇧🇷 already have hit potentially 76% already infected — some saying it’s basically been plowed so hard, it’s now at herd immunity levels (getting there the dangerous way). science.sciencemag.org/content/371/65…
2021-01-15 20:22:44
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
3) yet suddenly mortality is suddenly spiking again after a period of relative flatness. And Manaus is even skews younger than other areas. So this is odd.... reuters.com/article/us-hea…
2021-01-15 20:25:19
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
4) So what is new in Manaus 🇧🇷? They have the worrisome B1128 / P1 lineage. It has a crap ton of mutations in the all important spike; and moreover mutations in the spike’s critical binding domains... And most of all the most worrisome E484K mutation that can evade antibodies pic.twitter.com/gphfhQJnuy
2021-01-15 20:28:56
拡大
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
5) I’ve been trying to sound the alarm on B1128 (previously called B11248 by Japan), but it’s the same lineage — now renamed P1 because there are actually two B1128’s types in Brazil. twitter.com/drericding/sta…
2021-01-15 20:31:18
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
BREAKING—A new #SARSCoV2 variant (aka B.1.1.248) identified by Japan 🇯🇵 in ✈️pax from Brazil 🇧🇷. This new one has both the more infectious N501Y mutation (not affect vaccine), as well as the disruptive E484K mutation that escapes neutralizing antibodies.🧵 bloomberg.com/news/articles/… pic.twitter.com/YUz2RjqrXK
2021-01-11 21:22:58
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
6) To be clear on nomenclature (naming), the two Brazil variants are: 📌B.1.1.28(K417N/E484K/N501Y) ➡️ this is the one renamed P1. 📌There is another one called B.1.1.28(E484K) ...both have the problematic E484K mutation that can escape antibodies!
2021-01-15 20:33:56
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
7) Why are we so worried about this one? Because like the SA B1351 variant, this new one also has the E484K mutation. In a recent study by @jbloom_lab, E484 mutation (inside the #SARSCoV2’s spike’s critical receptor binding domain) seemed to escape neutralizing antibodies—bad. pic.twitter.com/sWziycEVRK
2021-01-15 20:34:44
拡大
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
8) There has even been a new case of reinfection of a person with #sarscov2 with the E484K mutation too. twitter.com/alinouriphd/st…
2021-01-15 20:36:39
Dr. Ali Nouri
@AliNouriPhD
1/📌Concerning case of reinfection: healthy 45 year old was reinfected with the genetically distinct SARS-CoV-2 variant that harbors the E484K mutation - this is the variant that was recently reported to escape neutralizing antibodies 1/6🧵 pic.twitter.com/h83eqc0sO8
2021-01-07 12:05:55
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
9) How much affect? the E484K shows a 10x reduction of neutralization (“neutralization” = stopping the virus) by various antibodies compared to wildtype (common #SARSCoV2) in some patients —a rather bad thing. It means the virus with E484K is worrying for “immune escape”. pic.twitter.com/Lkrl03IA4x
2021-01-15 22:00:31
拡大
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
10) Bottomline: despite overwhelming #COVID19 already in Manaus 🇧🇷, cases and deaths surging again possibly because of the new P1 variant. Many epidemiologists are getting worried too. And many are now saying reinfection possible if high immune escape from previous antibodies.
2021-01-15 22:02:25
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
11) this is also why UK is even closing off all travel from LATAM and from Portugal (because of Brazil network). twitter.com/drericding/sta…
2021-01-15 22:03:37
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
WORRISOME & SERIOUS—You know how the world put travel bans against UK 🇬🇧 travel out of fear of the #B117 more contagious variant? Well, now, UK🇬🇧 put travel ban from Latin America & Portugal 🇵🇹 because U.K. thinks Brazil 🇧🇷 #COVID19 variant is *worse*. 🧵 nytimes.com/2021/01/14/wor…
2021-01-15 08:36:21
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
12) and now WHO is even sounding the alarm because of the new Japan-discovered Brazil 🇧🇷 variant. twitter.com/drericding/sta…
2021-01-15 22:04:28
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
Concerning—WHO head @DrTedros now sounding the alarm on concern that more the virus spreads, increases chance of mutations. He adds: "Transmissibility of some variants of the virus appears to be increasing." #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/SOW2P14qpf
2021-01-12 04:17:43
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
13) to be clear on vaccines, the existing vaccine will still work. Though some scientists suspect maybe a few % drop in efficacy. But not sure yet. We are awaiting studies. Researchers are backlogged with also studying the South Africa 🇿🇦 B1135 variant that also has E484K.
2021-01-15 22:13:13
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
14) Someone asked, isn’t is just lack of Brazil mitigation? I don’t think it’s just that: —no real major change in mitigation measures suddenly like in Ireland 🇮🇪 —crisis uniquely increasing more in Manaus than in other parts of Brazil. —reinfection case above also supports
2021-01-15 22:23:37
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
15) And for those who try to say, “but reinfections are rare”... experts are now thinking that’s not necessarily true. They are “lower” than new infections but “not rare” as Dr Andersen, a leading virus mutation expert points out. twitter.com/k_g_andersen/s…
2021-01-15 22:30:06
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
16) As for some who say “but reinfections are mild”, that’s not always true. New UK study finds that 1/3 of reinfections still have symptoms.
2021-01-15 22:32:30