屁で空中ウクライナ（始計篇）

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

All of these political consultants and politicians and the powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack on Russia (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) –

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

So you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox for some bureaucrat, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia,

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash. We have no answer to the sanctions because of this. No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

It’s the flipside consequence of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country,

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations?

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If Zelensky signs, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him. ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Medvechuk, the coward, ran away. There is another leader – Boyko, but he refused too, even his own people won’t understand him. Wanted to bring back Tsaryova, but even our guys are against him here in Russia. Bring back Yanukovich? But how?

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

If we are saying we can’t occupy, then the newly formed government will be overthrown in 10 minutes as soon as we leave.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

There’s a rule - if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons: 1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos. These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!)

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen (Ukraine invasion) except only if we were to be attacked first.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky in Ukraine without ever considering invading Ukraine.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success.