経済制裁によるロシア崩壊予測の考察

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

How sanctions are killing Russia? Russia's falling. Old sanctions of 2014 sabotaged development of new innovative weaponry. New sanctions of 2022 are undermining Russian military efforts, destroying its technological chains and communications lines, thus breaking country apart🧵 pic.twitter.com/vYgVNCv290

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Western analysts greatly overestimate the robustness of Russia. Russians themselves are now talking about the imminent end of this state. Consider a Peskov's slip of tongue: "Special Operation launched to get rid of Russia" pic.twitter.com/enCQRK6iqW

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

End of Russia - that's what is on the table right now. Consider this talk show of Solovyov - top Putin's propagandist. Their point is - *any* treaty Russia signs with Ukraine will mark its defeat. That gonna be beginning of the end, not of Putin's regime but of Russian state pic.twitter.com/QVuOUEPLuH

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Medinsky, Putin's negotiator in Ukraine, claims that "the very existence of Russia is on stake now". Well, then the question arises - how did these guys put Russia on stake? Is it compulsive gambling disorder or what? pic.twitter.com/C4pmP5VaJi

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Well, they were sure of Russian victory. We have absolute military superiority and can easily crush Ukraine. We may not invade, but if we do, we'll 100% win. This was based on assumption about the invincibility of Russian army. Compare vibe of Russian TV in late February and now pic.twitter.com/YCXrXKEoQk

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

The assumption that Russia gonna win was based on three elements. First, on the mythos of WWII. They conveniently forgot that in WWII Russia fought on the side of greatest economic power and now it's fighting against. See Soviet soldiers on American Studebakers pic.twitter.com/mFtMIiRUXj

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Many talk of Serdyukov's military reforms. However, efficiency-maxer Serdyukov made interest groups angry and was fired. His successor Shoygu was a court-maxer and PR-maxer more interested in building his personality cult than the army. His flatterers even portray him as Subedei pic.twitter.com/DHcMI25MIL

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Many talk of Syrian war, where Russia got "so much experience" proving its fighting capacity. Putin believed in it. Russian generals believed in it. Western "expers" believed in it. Only Russian soldiers didn't. Consider this interview with a Wagner mercenary who fought in Syria pic.twitter.com/luOwMjvRhF

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

On February 26 Wagner mercenary debunked a myth of "real combat experience" Russian army got in Syria. Aviation got a real experience, air defense too. But the land troops didn't. Those who expect a victorious march through Ukraine are wrong. Ukraine got much stronger since 2015 pic.twitter.com/ZeCGLfTcE4

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Other Russian military sources which I'm not gonna quote even argued that Syrian experience was negative for Russian army. For example, much of their role was convoying Syrian and Irani supply caravans through a flar desert where it's difficult to set up an ambush unnoticed pic.twitter.com/1pm4N3gfvT

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In Syria Russians learnt that convoying caravans is easy. Now they try to repeat this Syrian experience in Ukraine. Being used to convoying caravans through desert, they now convoy them through forests or residential areas. There they get into ambushes and are exterminated pic.twitter.com/DH4iiLslji

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

That's why Russian military are so pessimistic about their perspective in Ukraine. Consider Strelkov. For 29 days Russia didn't achieve strategic success on any directions "My worst fears came true, we get involved into a long, bloody, and very dangerous war" pic.twitter.com/eipd1xGqQD

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

That's why Russia is losing so many generals. Why are they even being present on frontline? Because Russia is losing and Putin's knows it. He's furious and sending his generals to the frontline to take direct control in order to improve the situation. And there they get killed pic.twitter.com/THI7hhYjVF

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Putin launched a war, expecting an immediate victory. Russian propaganda leaflets literally boasted that Kyiv gonna be captured in one day. Yes, that's propaganda. But it reflected a widespread Russian conviction that Ukrainians wouldn't resist pic.twitter.com/b51R3lWCaH

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

What consuequences will it bring for Russia? Western analysts exaggerate how robust Russia is. Consider this recent article by Nial Fergusson. I think he's wrong. Putin won't be able to reach a result that Russian people will view as a victory. Any treaty will mark Russian defeat pic.twitter.com/zPi7yvOqaa

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

That's why smarter ones of the Russian elite are already trying to get off the sinking ship. Here is Chubays cashing out at an ATM in an Istanbul airport. Chubays is *the* major architect of modern Russia and he's running away pic.twitter.com/HvlYDehfDh

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In 1990s a St Petersburg liberal economist Chubays designed Russian privatization. He purposefully organised it in a most shady and non-transparent way to quickly create lots of rich people owing everything to the regime. That's how oligarchs fortunes were created pic.twitter.com/atby5jJt72

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

By the late 1990s crony "systemic liberals" like Chubays got tired of democracy. They didn't want parliamentarian, didn't want public politics. They wanted a Tsar who'll defend them from the public opinion (which hated them). So they chose Putin and boosted him out of nothing pic.twitter.com/w4l37r6rJ4

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In 2010s Chubays turned to Russian ethnonationalism. He funded nationalist media such as "Sputnik and Pogrom" who advocated building the "Russia for Russians" in these borders. Chubays is personally responsible for building oligarchy, Putinism and jingoist delusions in Russia pic.twitter.com/YupDjSXg3y

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

There is hardly any other living person who bears so much responsibility for what is happening in Russia now than Chubays. He created oligarchy, promoted Putin to power, boosted Russian ethnonationalism. He was all powerful and now he ran away. Because he knows Russia is over pic.twitter.com/Nyzb8nxvXn

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Well, Chubays made a good decision - run while you still can. MPs from the United Russia ruling party already can't leave the country without permission. Only smarter ones who escaped before the prohibition are now safe abroad, like Milonov. Others are trapped in Moscow pic.twitter.com/YR7PABpGlw

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Now let's finally outline a scenario of collapse. First, sanctions will destroy its technological and supply chains. Many believe in self-sufficiency of Russia. But Russia is not autarkic. It's not an evil empire but a Trade Federation totally dependent on technological import pic.twitter.com/Yli6IK6t72

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Machinery is the first victim of sanctions. It's using foreign components on all levels from microchips to bearings. Thus sanctions are destroying: 1. Military industry 2. Transport and communication lines 3. Production of consumer goods Thus they're breaing Russia apart pic.twitter.com/O91FUeraJX