Kamil Galeev氏論考「ロシアの未来、3つのシナリオ：2. 帝国の再始動」仮蔵氏訳

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Imperial Reboot In a previous thread I outlined three scenarios for the Russian future: 1. North Korea 2. Imperial Reboot 3. National Divorce Last time I discussed North Korea (Putin stays in power). Now I'll reiterate its main points and then outline the Imperial Reboot🧵 pic.twitter.com/1BpZLx1qXh

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

When I said that should Putin stay in power, Russia becomes North Korea I referred to its foreign policy. It'd be highly militarised, aggressive and isolationist nation that will have no other major partners but China. It will be obsessed with revenge against Ukraine and the West pic.twitter.com/oJHHKXIjiT

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

However, domestic policy-wise it would be more accurate to say that Russia will turn into a huge Donbass. Donbass is a part of Ukraine that was misfortunate enough to fall under the Russian rule and became a laboratory for a Kremlin's gargantuan experiment in social engineering pic.twitter.com/tp2V7xIoKR

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In Donbass Kremlin's agents rule freely without any procedural constraints, including even the Russian law. And what society did they build there? Well, a hypermilitarised kleptocracy. Donbass experiment worked out so well that now it's likely to be scaled up in entire Russia pic.twitter.com/BQ7IQLfJhL

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Donbass is now a fully militarised statist society. There's almost no private sector. Locals must either work for government enterprises (for food) or serve in Donbass army (for better wage). You have no choice but to toil for pro-Russian warlords or to shed your blood for them pic.twitter.com/S7cXbnz7PN

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

There's no law in Donbass, people have no protection against the arbitrary rule of pro-Russian warlords. There's obviously no place for dissidence, those who object will just disappear. People are purposefully kept in poverty so they can be better used as workers or cannon fodder pic.twitter.com/Bc7Lih23HU

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Russian sources paint grim picture of the WWI-style war in East Ukraine. Z-forces do frontline attacks on fortified Ukrainian positions again and again. They suffer huge losses with almost no progress but commanders keep sending them in frontline assaults. As Strelkov points out: pic.twitter.com/KWec3fJdYd

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Now whom are Russians sending to these frontline attacks? Well, the Donbass people. They do "total mobilisation" in Donetsk and Luhansk and send these guys to frontline attacks. That's very smart. They're not Russian soldiers, so you can keep official casualty numbers low

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Why would Russia itself turn into a Donbass? First, Russia has been lowkey drifting to the Donbass state for years. It's an oil exporter that is running out of cheap oil and wants to stay highly militarised. Thus it must reduce life standards and personal freedoms pic.twitter.com/xaF7NZBAJ6

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Second, main arguments against sanctions are both true or false depending on whether we view them in a short term or in a long term. Yes, they may lead to Putin increasing his power in Russia. And they will lead to Russian rapprochment with China. But only if Putin stays in power pic.twitter.com/D2x0aAEjtn

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Anecdotally in 1999 a general close to then Prime Minister Putin approached a Moscow businessman. He asked him for investment: give us N dollars and join the club. We need cash right now. And when we take power "nobody in the country will have money but us". You can be one of us pic.twitter.com/wxoFJmgETQ

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

This businessman didn't invest. He didn't have enough available cash. Neither did he really believe that yet another Yeltsin's PM would be able to consolidate power. And yet, Putin did consolidate it and soon nobody in Russia had (big) money except for his team. General was right pic.twitter.com/P63cone4tq

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Independent money is always a threat to established order. Financial resources can and will be used for renegotiating the power balance. That's why independent fortunes shouldn't exist. Ideally people should have no sources of cash except for the government wage. As in Donbass pic.twitter.com/HSRbhbqRFb

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Paradoxically, destruction of Russian private sector as a result of sanctions can lead to Putin increasing his power within Russia (provided that he stays in power). If Russia can export resources, the government will have cash but normal people won't. That's very advantageous pic.twitter.com/54dWR0Qyqe

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Furthermore, integration with China is possible. It just takes time. You cant reorient Russian technological import and resource exports from the West to China overnight, it gonna take years. Should Putin stay in power, Russia will have time to steadily progress in this direction pic.twitter.com/CxOGswjrOk

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

It'd be wrong to describe current Russian-Chinese relations as an alliance. Some Chinese intellectuals rather view Russia as an icebreaker that would clear a route for the Pax Sinica. This article may be representative of the mainstream Chinese discourse readingthechinadream.com/zheng-yongnian…

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Putin's invasion of Ukraine could distract the US for 15-20 years. America being preoccupied with Russia, China will have time time to grow stronger to "play a more important role in the construction of the new world order". Russia isn't a Chinese ally. It's a Chinese icebreaker pic.twitter.com/MPEhHL6Oz5

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

See the original publication here. This argument makes total sense and Putin will indeed serve as an icebreaker for the Pax Sinica, provided that Putin's regime survives Z-war and exists for yet another decade or two mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FyC1hfGRP3GO…

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Now the third reason for Russian turning into Donbass is that should Putin keep power, Russia will be obsessed by revenge and revanche. Russian public opinion absolutely will view peace with Ukraine as huge Putin's defeat. It already does pic.twitter.com/BO6eiaITde

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

There will be lots of revanchist pressure. Consider this interview with a mother of a National Guardsman KIA. She admits she didn't think much about Ukraine before and operation went wrongly. But: "If so many boys died, we can't stop now. We should continue, till the victory" pic.twitter.com/yQBoTPyNS4

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

She won't accept her son died in vain. Well technically he didn't. A grieving mother gets 7 441 000 rubles + monthly allowance. But she also needs clear consciousness (and social recognition). Will she ever admit her son died on a criminal war? You'll never manage to convince her pic.twitter.com/PMNOCDvTa8

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Russia suffered massive losses in Ukraine and will suffer more as the fighting keeps going. People will lose their relatives, friends neighbours. Their logic will work like this: Our boys died -> They died for a good purpose -> We should regroup and complete what they started pic.twitter.com/UkIdAJum9A