ロシアの未来、3つのシナリオ：1. 北朝鮮」「経済制裁はいかにロシアを殺すか」

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

I see three plausible scenarios for the Russian future: 1. North Korea 2. Imperial Reboot 3. Jubilee Since Ukraine is resolved to fight, the choice of a Russian historical track ultimately depends upon the resolve of the West. Today I'll outline the North Korea scenario 🧵 pic.twitter.com/Mi0yhMDFBI

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

If the West deescalates and Putin stays in power, he will become much stronger and Russia will become more like North Korea. You shouldn't delude yourself, there's no way back to February 23. As a result of "deescalation", Russia won't return to the status quo pic.twitter.com/jQa4H7GFmu

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

If the West deescalates, it means Putin was absolutely, 100% right to rush Z and all who doubted him were idiots. When Putin decided to fight, officials such as Foreign Intelligence Service chief Naryshkin hesitated. They doubted his decision. Victory will dispel any doubts pic.twitter.com/LFM4u40rK8

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Many compare Putin's Russia with the USSR and Z-war with the Cold War. That's wrong. With the brief exception of 1945-1953 the USSR was always collectively run. Politburo actually discussed policy decisions. The USSR was much more oligarchical and modern Russia is more autocratic pic.twitter.com/2pwn4gDiMd

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

With the exception of late Stalinism, the USSR was a Party oligarchy. Ruling clique made collective decisions and Politburo protocols showed they were *actually* discussing them. Politburo had real debates. Modern Russia has no debates. Only the Supreme Leader dictating his will pic.twitter.com/arw1cQoUw7

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

"Deescalation" proponents ignore its effect on the balance of power within Russia. Putin already concentrated enormous decision maker power in his hands, much more than Soviet rulers. Not everyone however, trusts his judgement 100%. Victory will show you must follow Putin blindly pic.twitter.com/drp4xDCcXi

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Consider Munich agreement, 1938. When Hitler manufactured crisis in Czechoslovakia many in Germany doubted his judgement. Wehrmacht and Abwehr officers led by Hans Oster planned a coup aiming to assassinate Hitler and to overthrow the Nazi rule that leads Germany to catastrophe pic.twitter.com/s7ruZUKpCu

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Why didn't they do it then? Well, because the West deescalated. Neville Chamberlain chose appeasement strategy. He was afraid of the war and thus gave Hitler concessions to buy peace. However, these concessions very much increased Hitler's authority *within* Germany pic.twitter.com/vxzJ1h3nR2

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

German resolve in WWII should be viewed in the context of Munich. In 1938 Hitler put Germany on stake. Many doubted his judgement, some plotted to kill the madman. But then the West backed off and gave concessions. He isn't a madman, he is a genius. Those who doubted him are mad pic.twitter.com/6Y5QwsWngF

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Foreign policy impacts domestic policy. It's insane to ponder how this or that pact will change international balance of power without considering its effect on domestic balance. Every risky move he gets aways with increases the power of a ruler. We doubtet him, but he was right pic.twitter.com/VxSuQAWnpf

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

I noticed an interesting pattern. Those analysts who casually label dictatorial behaviour as "irrational" never managed to establish a proper dictatorship. They don't know how to build dictatorial power, they don't know how to keep it. They have no idea what they're talking about pic.twitter.com/umtBZHMNyF

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Dictator *must* make risky "irrational" moves to shift domestic balance of power. When he puts the country on stake, many doubt his judgement. But once he wins, he's proven right. He's genius following him blindly is the smartest thing you can do. That's how he builds his power pic.twitter.com/shk69B9AOF

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Russian people may not have realised this yet, but officials know that Putin has put Russia at stake. More importantly, he put *them*, their lives, fortunes and careers on stake. They're very nervous. Many wish they could return to February 23 and undo all the following decisions pic.twitter.com/Bv0tn04xFv

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Russia can't make peace with Ukraine because it would mean Ukraine has won. Once Putin declared them as Nazis and promised to destroy them, he can't back off. That would mean he tried to finish them and failed. His judgement is weak. That will break his stand within Russian power pic.twitter.com/qjuJj94ZQs

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

However, any agreement between Russia and the West, any deescalation, lifting of any sanctions will have the opposite effect. Russian authorities don't think they fighting with Ukraine. They think they're fighting with the West. Putin escalated conflict and the West backed off pic.twitter.com/F7PGK8zbPC

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Consider Zhirinovsky's speech in parliament on January 18, 2022. It may not reflect the united position of Russian power but it certainly reflects its worldview. We must wage a war to: A. Defeat the West B. Using our military superiority C. And thus solve our economic problems pic.twitter.com/AYLFu7Opfu

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

This speech reflects assumptions Russian rulers are basing their policy on. First, Zhirinovsky mentions Russia has "economic problems". It's a slip of the tongue and an understatement. In fact Russia is in a deep structural crisis. It's the oil exporter that ran out of cheap oil pic.twitter.com/C0XC3haEvX

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Theoretically Russia has huge oil and gas deposits. But nearly all of them lie in the Arctic and are super expensive to develop. Moreover, Russia lacks technology to develop them alone and has to rely on Western investors and suppliers. See my thread twitter.com/kamilkazani/st…

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Russia is also dependentupon technological import. Russia doesn't produce much and what it does produce, it produces on Western machines, with Western components and technologies. This can't be solved within the current sociopolitical order. See my thread twitter.com/kamilkazani/st…

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Finally Russia is depopulating. It has fewer youngsters and fewer Russians. That's what believers in Russian resilience forget: yes, in the past Russia could afford huge human losses to win wars and industrialise. But back then it was young. See my thread twitter.com/kamilkazani/st…

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

These are "economic problems" Zhirinovsky was talking about and which nearly everyone in the Russian ruling class was aware off. You shouldn't underestimate Russian officials, they may not be geniuses. Most of them are not even intellectuals. But most of them are not dumb

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Now imagine yourself as Putin or those in power who support him. You know your country is in deep crisis. It's depopulating. It doesn't produce much and is critically dependent on import. It mostly exports oil & gas and now runs out of cheap oil * gas, the rest is in the Arctic