キーウ攻防戦分析(2022/4月初時点)

Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 1/ The Battle of Kyiv was decisive battle in Ukraine War that Russia launced invading on Feb 24, 2022. Russian assault on Kyiv was catastrophic military failure, overwhelming victory for Ukraine Battle ended 31 March with total retreat This is summary pic.twitter.com/yIgdleGHpr

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 2/ Because of Social Media, we have a unique ability to reconstruct history in near-real time, to know EXACTLY what happened and WHEN. And sort out the lies, propaganda and 'fog of war'. Not WHILE it happens, but very shortly thereafter This is my attempt pic.twitter.com/t8UJ3DXVTw

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 3/ During the battle we cannot know WHICH of the social media postings is accurate, even to the best honest efforts of those posting (because it could have been misunderstanding or a deliberate military diversion, intended to get attention). But after.. pic.twitter.com/YtlUVNidTU

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 4/ But after a battle, we can see what had actually happened, who won, who lost. Where the battle was fought. And we can tell quite well, which parts of the original postings were ACCURATE - and then collect the best TRUE history of what happened pic.twitter.com/HGsN9u9VHs

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 5/ This is SIGNIFICANTLY better than reading or viewing the BEST news sources that were CONTEMPORARY because those were always subject to the same current analysis errors. Not knowing the big picture and the full story. Now we know Let me tell you a story pic.twitter.com/e1WvHlFk67

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 6/ We know NOW that yes, Putin had a 4 hours plan to win the war in Ukraine And his 'Plan B' was a 3 days plan to defeat Kyiv if the 4 hours plan somehow failed He deployed both of these plans with MASSIVE military force, against Kyiv. We now know how pic.twitter.com/hix13FkKct

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 7/ FOUR HOUR PLAN Yes. There was a plan to defeat Ukraine in 'four hours'. It could have worked. Russia (=Soviet Union) used this in Hungary 1956, Czechoslovakia (1968) and Afghanistan (1979). Seize the capital, take the TV/radio, & declare on TV you won pic.twitter.com/mxUH2Ohly4

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 8/ Putin plan to defeat Ukraine in 4 hours involved an air assault force of 1,000 men taking Antonov Airport at Hostomel, then IL 76 transport planes would land 7,000 men and their armored vehicles, to take the Presidential Palace (& TV stations) in Kyiv pic.twitter.com/HwN1ZQ70XZ

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 9/ This bold plan to defeat Ukraine in 4 hours might have worked. Russia had done that before when toppling a government. About 30 Mil 17 transport helicopters and their escort helicopters attacked at dawn of Feb 24 & assaulted Antonov Airport pic.twitter.com/x6d1lWMl6A

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 10/ BATTLE OF ANTONOV AIRPORT The first battle of the Ukraine War and first battle in the Battle for Kyiv was the Battle of Antonov Airport, 24-25 Feb 2022. Initial assault force arrived at dawn in about 30 Mil 17 helicopters & their attack helicopters pic.twitter.com/Oe0WDDBTOE

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 11/ The assault force had airborne troops from either 11th or 35th Guards Air Assault Brigade. Some of their helicopters were shot down. The remaining force of about 1,000 elite paratroop units faced Ukraine's 3rd Special Purpose Regiment waiting to defend pic.twitter.com/UN9wtH8FZN

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 12/ While this battle for the airport was under way, the main air assault force (7,000 more men & their armored vehicles) arrived over the airport in giant IL 76 transport cargo jets. They attempted to land. Ukraine shot down two IL 76. Landing was aborted pic.twitter.com/FVRVthE0ef

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 13/ The IL 76 jets were diverted to nearest Russian-controlled airfield which was on the Belarus side of the border, town of Gomel (Homel) Meanwhile Ukraine's Kyiv defense sent 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade to reinforce the defenders who retook the airport pic.twitter.com/xvNIDhNYpR

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 14/ Antonov Airport, briefly in Russian hands in the morning of Feb 24, was now back in Ukrainian control by afternoon of Feb 24. They knew a large land invasion army was coming South from Belarus, and proceeded to destroy the runways of this airport pic.twitter.com/oE9LFuQnzS

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 15/ The Russian paratroops attacked Antonov Airport in a massive helicopter assault of 200 helicopters and about 5,000 men, taking the airport again, on Feb 25. But Ukraine defenders prevented their breakout encircling the airport. pic.twitter.com/f5nYYPSJeZ

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 16/ The main army attacking Kyiv came overland with tanks and armor, the 35th Combined Arms Army. It fought itself to and through the perimeter of the Antonov airport & afternoon Feb 25 airport was in Russian hands. But now unusable so was pyrrhic victory pic.twitter.com/yu9aRO9S1A

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 17/ If you remember early hysteria that Kyiv might fall, or President Zelensky might be captured or killed, & Western allies begged Zelensky to flee Kyiv. This was all realistic & the threat was real. Russians TRIED an air assault on Kyiv Ukraine prevailed pic.twitter.com/8h7b8WIw1a

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 18/ Putin Plan A was to defeat Ukraine in 4 hours. He launched a massive air assault with 8,000 elite paratroops, their armored vehicles, dozens of helicopters & dozens of giant cargo planes & DID seize the airport suitable for this mission Plan A failed pic.twitter.com/8MKnZbVJoF

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 19/ PLAN B - ENCIRCLE KYIV While Plan A was under way, ALSO Russia had prepared for Plan B, just in case On same morning Feb 24, they launched the full assault on Kyiv, to take the capital city by force. And this plan was modeled on Grozny, Chechen War pic.twitter.com/kgAtuQt4rw

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 20/ In Putin's first war (then as Prime Minister) the Second Chechen War 1999-2000, Putin encircled capital city of Chechnya, Grozny (pop 450,000). Laid a minefield around it. Bombarded it every day & night until literally every building destroyed. pic.twitter.com/AzJhuah0ih

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 21/ This EXACT same Grozny battle plan is used by Putin today in Ukraine, in siege of Mariupol (pop 450,000) To undestand Plan B for Kyiv, look at Mariupol. That was Putin's Plan B for Kyiv (pop 3M). Not invade Kyiv but encircle it & then bombard to rubble pic.twitter.com/voHDeq35hJ

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 22/ BATTLE OF KYIV The Battle plan to take Kyiv was to send Russian 35th Combined Arms Army from Belarus to a staging town outside Kyiv (Hostomel just outside of Irpin) on Day 1. Then refuel. Then encircle Kyiv on Day 2. Start destruction of Kyiv on Day 3 pic.twitter.com/ped2v8mq04

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 23/ Note, the Russians did not expect that Kyiv would capitulate after 3 days, only that in this battle plan, they would encircle Kyiv in 3 days, essentially guaranteeing Russia's eventually destruction of Kyiv (six months to two years later) or surrender pic.twitter.com/tlPhwHDcKc

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