ウクライナｰロシア戦争でのISWの戦況レポート2023

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

Happy New Year, and thanks to everyone for supporting ISW and sharing our work in 2022. ISW and @criticalthreats will not publish a campaign assessment (or maps) tomorrow, January 1, in observance of the holiday. Coverage will resume on Monday, January 2. isw.pub/UkrWar12312022 pic.twitter.com/bTdGpLfDhM

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

NEW: A devastating Ukrainian #HIMARS strike on a Russian base in #Makiivka, #Donetsk Oblast, on December 31 has generated significant criticism of Russian military leadership in the Russian information space. Latest on #Ukraine w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar010223 pic.twitter.com/8Q7wXA44cp

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

#Putin approved a series of instructions for #Russian agencies and high-level officials on January 2 likely to address criticisms of the Kremlin’s treatment of military personnel and portray the #Kremlin as an involved war-time apparatus. isw.pub/UkrWar010323 pic.twitter.com/OS3sZKLwek

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

The #Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the #Ukrainian #HIMARS strike on a Russian base in #Makiivka to criticize endemic issues in the Russian military apparatus. isw.pub/UkrWar010423 pic.twitter.com/DUo6MY4XkJ

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

NEW: #Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire in observance of Russian Orthodox Christmas is likely an information operation intended to damage #Ukraine’s reputation. isw.pub/UkrWar010523 pic.twitter.com/MgBPo2FRQh

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

#Russian officials and milbloggers largely did not react to the US announcement of more than $3.75 billion in new military aid to #Ukraine, a marked shift from the Kremlin's reaction to the recent provision of defensive Patriot missiles to Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar010623 pic.twitter.com/cxK8BjF9EU

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

Recent #Russian gains in #Soledar do not portend an imminent encirclement of #Bakhmut, contrary to claims made by Russian sources. isw.pub/UkrWar010723 pic.twitter.com/A1B3zHmOO9

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, January 8. This report discusses (1) the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) attempts to claim that Russian forces responded to the December 31 Ukrainian strike on Russian positions in Makiivka; isw.pub/UkrWar010823 pic.twitter.com/qN1fZdxZJK

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

NEW: #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin continues to use reports of Wagner Group success in #Soledar, #Donetsk Oblast, in an attempt to bolster Wagner Group’s reputation as an effective fighting force. isw.pub/UkrWar010923 pic.twitter.com/J1kuMk4nmS

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

Russian forces have not captured the entirety of #Soledar despite false Russian claims that the city has fallen and that #Bakhmut risks imminent encirclement. Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces advanced into the west of Soledar on January 10. isw.pub/UkrWar011023 twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/… pic.twitter.com/NcpWrBNagA

ISW @TheStudyofWar

Russian media reported on Jan. 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District (CMD) & Russian forces in eastern Kharkiv & northern Donetsk oblasts, has been appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces. isw.pub/UkrWar011023 pic.twitter.com/skwQDKIULf

2023-01-11 11:46:49

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

The #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced today that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery #Gerasimov will take over as theater commander as part of a major reshuffle of the Russian command structure for the war in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar011123 pic.twitter.com/DjwCruAaev

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

#Russian forces’ likely capture of #Soledar on January 11 is not an operationally significant development and is unlikely to presage an imminent Russian encirclement of #Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar011223 pic.twitter.com/9qtQPH71Qs

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 13 that Russian forces seized #Soledar on January 12. The MoD’s initial announcement (which didn't mention the #Wagner Group) sparked a significant backlash within the Russian information space. isw.pub/UkrWar011323 pic.twitter.com/xm81wVOwum

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

#Russian forces launched two waves of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure today. The #Kremlin continues to falsely claim that #Ukraine poses an existential threat to Russia to reject Ukrainian offers of a peace summit. isw.pub/UkrWar011423 pic.twitter.com/o4bVPBDEhY

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

NEW: Tonight's abbreviated campaign assessment from ISW and @criticalthreats focuses on #Russia’s likely preparation to conduct a decisive strategic action in 2023 intended to end #Ukraine’s string of operational successes and regain the initiative. isw.pub/UkrWar011523 pic.twitter.com/zfNNSHh7IO

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

The Kremlin continues to publicly challenge Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s claims that Wagner Group forces were solely responsible for capturing Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, on January 12. Read the latest from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar011623 pic.twitter.com/yavdVjjtIb

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

#Putin's directive to conduct large-scale military reforms aimed at expanding #Russia’s conventional armed forces is likely to prepare for a protracted war in #Ukraine and to set conditions to build a significantly stronger Russian military quickly. isw.pub/UkrWar011723 twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/…

ISW @TheStudyofWar

Russian Defense Minister Sergey #Shoigu announced on January 17 that he will implement Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s directive to conduct large-scale military reforms between 2023-2026 to expand #Russia’s conventional armed forces. isw.pub/UkrWar011723 pic.twitter.com/uocwUZCzMh

2023-01-18 11:10:02

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

#Putin’s speech commemorating the Soviet forces’ breaking of the siege of #Leningrad signaled that he remains uncertain about his ability to significantly shape the #Russian information space. isw.pub/UkrWar011823 pic.twitter.com/WXQhGMwFtL

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

NEW: Senior #Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting conditions for a Russian attack against #Ukraine from #Belarus, although not necessarily and not in the coming weeks. isw.pub/UkrWar01192023 pic.twitter.com/VAhksWfUum

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

Head of the #Chechen Republic Ramzan #Kadyrov continues to frame Chechen fighters’ involvement in the war in #Ukraine on distinctly religious grounds, thereby building out his reputation and the reputation of his power base. isw.pub/UkrWar012023 pic.twitter.com/7H44h3JL60

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

While the costs associated with Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut are significant & likely include opportunity costs related to potential Ukrainian counter-offensive operations elsewhere, Ukraine would also have paid a significant price for allowing Russian troops to take it easily.🧵 twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/…

ISW @TheStudyofWar

Ukraine's defense of #Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for #Ukraine. The costs associated with Ukraine’s continued defense of Bakhmut are significant, but Ukraine would also have paid a significant price for giving it up. isw.pub/UkrWar012123 pic.twitter.com/vpZMkRsTs7

2023-01-22 12:53:50

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

NEW: #Wagner financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin’s star has begun to set after months of apparent rise following his failure to make good on promises of capturing #Bakhmut with his own forces. isw.pub/UkrWar012223 pic.twitter.com/DA2qCdUrUH

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

NEW: Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW’s standing assessment that Russian troops may undertake a decisive action in the coming months. isw.pub/UkrWar012323 pic.twitter.com/ixmLrwk3Ph

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

A coalition of #NATO member states reportedly will send #Ukraine modern main battle tanks, the provision of which will help enable Ukraine to conduct mechanized warfare to defeat the #Russian military and liberate Ukrainian territory. isw.pub/UkrWar012423 pic.twitter.com/iMy1xULSaX

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Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar

#Russian forces may be engaging in limited spoiling attacks across most of the frontline in #Ukraine in order to disperse and distract Ukrainian forces and set conditions to launch a decisive offensive operation in #Luhansk Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar012523 pic.twitter.com/AumghzmYYh

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