UNSCEAR 2008 ANNEX D, Appendix D

UNSCEAR 2008
ANNEX D: HEALTH EFFECTS DUE TO RADIATION FROM THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

APPENDIX D. LATE HEALTH EFFECTS

III. Late Health Effects of The CHERNOBYL Accident in Workers and The General Public

d. Risk projection

Ilyin, L. and L. Buldakov (1987)

"The first projections of the potential health consequences of the accident were prepared by a group of Soviet specialists at the request of the authorities in the autumn of 1986 and published in the collected proceedings of a symposium held in Moscow in June 1987"

"Among the 1.1 million inhabitants of these areas, it was predicted that the death rate due to cancer in the 70 years following the accident, might increase, on average, by 3.3%, and that there would be approximately 7,500 cases of thyroid cancer, including around 1,000 cases in children who were below the age of seven at the time of the accident."

Ramzaev PV, Ivanov EV, Balonov MI et al. (1987)

"A second article examined separately the possible health consequences for the Russian population."

"For the 600,000 inhabitants of the most contaminated areas in four oblasts (Bryansk, Tula, Kaluga and Orel), the potential increase in the death rate due to cancer was predicted to be 3.5%, while for the 60 million inhabitants of the European part of the Russian Federation, it was predicted to be 0.2%. In addition, 1,400 cases of thyroid cancer were predicted to occur in the four oblasts, including more than 300 cases in children below the age of seven, and up to 9,000 cases (3,000 of them in children) in the European part of the Russian Federation."

Anspaugh LR, Catlin RJ and Goldman M. (1988)

"In 1988, US scientists published the first assessment of the global impact of the Chernobyl accident."

Cardis E, Anspaugh L, Ivanov VK et al. (1996)
http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1001_web.pdf

"Ten years after the accident, an international group of specialists, who had participated actively in the post- accident epidemiological studies, gave a more detailed projection of the potential consequences in terms of cancer incidence, based on more accurate estimates of the effective doses, the relevant radiation risk factors and the LNT model (table D24)."

"According to the 1996 assessment, approximately 4,000 additional premature deaths from cancer (solid cancer and leukaemia) due to the increased radiation exposure were estimated to occur over the lifetime of the more exposed groups of people (600,000) and a further 5,000 cases among the other 7 million residents. The predicted average increase in the frequency of radiation-induced solid cancers over a lifetime was 3.3% among the more exposed population and 0.6% among the other residents. The predicted average increases in the frequency of radiation-induced leukaemia were 12% and 1.5%, respectively."

WHO 2006 "Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident and Special Health Care Programmes"
http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/chernobyl/WHO Report on Chernobyl Health Effects July 06.pdf

"The issues arising from a comparison of the projections of the possible increased incidence of cancer due to the accident and data from 20 years of surveillance of the various population groups were examined by the Chernobyl Forum in 2003–2005. Based on the available epidemiological data, the Forum did not consider it necessary to change the projections of Cardis et al., despite there being some differences in the demographic and dosimetric data."

Cardis E., Krewski D, Boniol M et al. (2006)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ijc.22037/full

"In 2006, Cardis et al. made another attempt to project the possible incremental increase in cancer incidence in European populations due to the additional radiation exposure arising from the Chernobyl accident. They used updated estimates of the collective dose and state-of-the-art risk models developed recently by the BEIR (Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation) VII Committee."

"The risk projections suggested that by then the Chernobyl accident may have caused about an additional 1,000 cases of thyroid cancer and an additional 4,000 cases of other cancers in Europe, representing about 0.01% of all cancers since the accident. The models predicted that by 2065, about 16,000 (95% CI: 3,400, 72,000) cases of thyroid cancer and 25,000 (95% CI: 11,000, 59,000) cases of other cancers could occur owing to radiation exposure resulting from the accident,"

"It is very unlikely that this additional cancer burden due to the largest nuclear accident to date could be detected by monitoring national cancer statistics."

"During the last decade, the Committee has avoided making projections of the health effects that might be caused by low-level exposure of large population groups, mainly because of the substantial uncertainties associated with any such projection and potentially serious misinterpretation in communication with the public."