2021年9月6日

インドでインフルエンザが18箇月振りに復活し始めた

インドでは集団免疫を獲得してコロナを終熄させたのだけどその代わりに今までウイルス干渉によって形を潜めていたインフルエンザが戻って来たという話でした。ネパールでもインフルエンザが増加中。因みにワクチン２度接種率は11.5%程度（天下のグーグル様で調べればすぐに感染状況も一緒に出て来る）。多分この調子だと冬頃に日本にもやって来るだろうね。インフルエンザは子供さえも重症化させ死に至らしめる脅威のウイルスです。

ネパールインフルエンザワクチンインド新型コロナウイルスウイルスウイルス干渉集団免疫

kusamura_eisei
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PLC @Humble_Analysis

The flu has returned to India after an absence of ~18 months. This almost certainly indicates that covid has become endemic in India and that there will be no significant future waves. pic.twitter.com/mnwB7PuO4F

2021-09-05 13:24:11

拡大

PLC @Humble_Analysis

Indian hospitals are reporting high numbers of sick patients - but only 0.1% are testing positive for covid (rate of false positives) but many patients are testing positive for the flu: indianexpress.com/article/cities…

2021-09-05 13:25:40

リンク The Indian Express Delhi: In flu season, virus symptoms spark Covid fears among many Since the month of July, daily Covid positivity rate in the city has been hovering around the 0.1% mark. However, doctors in several hospitals say that patients with symptoms similar to Covid have been presenting themselves for the last few weeks. 39

PLC @Humble_Analysis

Seroprevelance surveys in India indicate that 2/3 of the population has antibodies to covid. Is that the HIT threshold necessary to end the pandemic phase, allow the flu to return, and mark covid as just another endemic virus? indianexpress.com/article/explai…

2021-09-05 13:28:29

リンク The Indian Express 2 of 3 Indians have Covid-19 antibodies: ICMR serosurvey findings explained The survey was conducted in June and July, 2021 across 70 districts of 21 states. These are the same districts where three earlier rounds have been conducted during May-June (2020); August-September (2020); and December-January (2020-2021). 482

PLC @Humble_Analysis

Interestingly, cases (and deaths) are disappearing in India with 66% seroprevelance and only 10% vaccinated which Israel, with 88% of adults vaccinated 30% "boosted" continues to see a rising wave... pic.twitter.com/o7RPvU9MdZ

2021-09-05 13:32:36

拡大

Matt M. @mosconml

@Humble_Analysis Can you explain? Why does the presence of the flu mean the COVID waves are finished?

2021-09-05 13:33:14

PLC @Humble_Analysis

Could it be that pandemic ends only when 2/3 of the population has actually been infected?

2021-09-05 13:33:22

PLC @Humble_Analysis

By the way, in case you were wondering, social distancing is not possible in India and masks don't seem to be a thing, either: timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/c…

2021-09-05 13:38:27

リンク The Times of India Crowd surge hits Chennai beaches, parks | Chennai News - Times of India Thousands of people thronged city parks and beaches on the first Sunday since they were reopened to public. Rain did not deter visits to zoo, children 16

RephreshedMind @RephreshedMind

@Humble_Analysis Both @Thinkerks and @drakchaurasia could likely give some insight here.

2021-09-05 13:39:31

PLC @Humble_Analysis

@mosconml The flu disappeared because covid out-competed the fly for susceptible hosts. Now that the flu has returned, that indicates covid has receded.

2021-09-05 13:40:06

Ketan Shah @Thinkerks

@RephreshedMind @Humble_Analysis @drakchaurasia The state of Kerala remains a wild card. Save for this, I would agree that Covid has become endemic in most parts of India. In states like Gujarat it is nearly zero.

2021-09-05 13:45:16

PLC @Humble_Analysis

@Thinkerks @RephreshedMind @drakchaurasia That's true - there may be more minor waves in some states, but no true national wave.

2021-09-05 13:51:46

ずかん　ウイルス