ロシア連邦保安庁(FSB)分析官のロシアの現状分析の Igor Sushko による英訳

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

🧵My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of supplies, and then ridiculous heat will come….

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please note – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine. Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes it feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

With regards to prisons – it will get worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon. And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world. First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s murky as to who controls what and how, but always files reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

Whether it’s due to Putin's fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If Putin is scared for the most trusted people to be near him, then how could he possibly choose to destroy himself and those dearest to him? ( END OF TRANSLATION )

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

ADDENDUM: I wrote the following thread on March 1st - my opinion of the situation. twitter.com/igorsushko/sta…

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

The Rubicon has been crossed days ago. The entire West and Russia is at war, whether the West has been able to fully digest that or not. It is only a matter of time as to when NATO will start running sorties inside Ukraine (and maybe Belarus) to annihilate Russian columns.

2022-03-02 02:46:44

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

SOME CONTEXT twitter.com/christogrozev/…

Christo Grozev @christogrozev

Last night, an alleged FSB whistle-blower letter was published that damned Russia's military performance in Ukraine and predicted a disaster for the RU in the next weeks and months. I wasn't sure if it was authentic - as Ukraine had previously leaked fake FSB letters as psy-ops.

2022-03-06 04:48:14

Igor Sushko @igorsushko

FULL TRANSLATED TEXT IN ARTICLE FORM: facebook.com/IGORSUSHKORACI…