屁で空中ウクライナ（計篇）

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In 1998 Russian economy reached the bottom and started bouncing back. In 2000s it was showered by the oil money and of course the Kremlin decided to invest much of the export revenue into restoring its military potential. But how? That's a really funny story

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

First, they pumped money into the army. Then the army started buying stuff from the military factories. And then the military factories faced the problem of not being able to meet all this new unexpected demand. Because they lacked the machine tools for this production

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

It seems that the Putin's logic and the course of actions was exactly reverse to the Stalin's. Stalin made a specific focus on "producing the means of production" which would be the foundation for anything else. Putin apparently didn't think about it till the last moment

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Russian government made three comprehensive programs for the import substitution in the machine tool industry. Each program failed as the authors of the next program would admit later. Russia had no capacity of fixing this bottleneck or restoring the old Soviet capacities. Why?

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Partially because it didn't have the same workers. Soviet Union had a large pool of highly qualified industrial workers operating the non programmable machines. Who basically had to train their entire lives, till their teens. And it was training new ones constantly

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In the 1990s production of industrial workers crashed. The Soviet CNC production died. The only thing Russia had was a small part of the USSR non programmable machine tools production. The problem was that operating those machines required high qualification and the long training

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

But Russia had almost no youngsters with such training. The last workers who could operate old machines dying or retiring seems to be quite a typical picture for the Russian military production circa 2005-2010. And the new ones will never be trained

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Even if the new ones could be trained that would make little sense, because the old tacit knowledge died anyway. Numerous Soviet technologies, like the tank barrel production were lost and couldn't be restored. So restoring the Soviet technological chains made no sense anyway

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In 2000s Kremlin wanted to restore the army and had oil money for that. But: 1. It didn't have the Soviet tools production 2. It had no people to operate the Soviet tools 3. Even if had people to operate them, tradition had been already interrupted and the tacit knowledge died

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

What could the Kremlin do? While making all those ritual talks about the import substitution, it would just buy Western tools. NB: 1. Almost all Russian tools are imported 2. They are mostly imported from Germany 3. The Russian military industry consumes 85% of the machine tools

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

While Germany is providing the lion share of tools and industry for the Russian military production, in fact Russian military plants had a broad range of suppliers. Switzerland, Italy, Japan, the USA and others pic.twitter.com/uKqNPTK7pC

拡大

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Anecdotally the Russian military industry could even use Australian or Turkish tools. See this Turkish Eroglu machine on Kalinin plant that is producing the S-300 air defence systems. See it here on 8:18 in a video on the 150th anniversary of the plant youtube.com/watch?v=QiayyN… pic.twitter.com/L8MrDPhqW8

拡大

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

There is a massive evidence of the Russian military industry, including the cruise and ballistic missiles industry using the foreign tools: 1. German (mostly) 2. But also other European, Japanese, American or even Australian/Turkish But I *never* saw them using anything Chinese

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Why? I have some ideas, though I can't prove them. The first one is that China shares some of the same or similar industrial chokepoints as Russia. Like the instruments or high end bearings. China just can't provide *everything* that Russia needs cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ch…

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

And yet, even though China can't cover all of Russia's bottlenecks it could at least help to cover some of them. Why don't we see it? Why Russia uses so much Swiss or Japanese tools but we don't see it using Chinese? Are Chinese tools all that bad? Not necessarily

JSF @rockfish31

中国ドローン大手DJI、ロシア・ウクライナ事業を一時停止 afpbb.com/articles/-/340… @afpbbcom 市販ドローンはこういうことになるので、結局は軍用ドローンが必要になる。市販ドローン大活躍論者の梯子を外すDJI・・・でも中国が自社製品の戦争利用をロシアを含めて否定するとはね。

東野篤子　Atsuko Higashino @AtsukoHigashino

昨年3月、マリウポリの劇場はロシアの攻撃からの避難先として使われており、ロシア軍からもよく見えるよう「子供」と大書されていたのですが、それにもかわらず攻撃され、夥しい死者を出しました。 その劇場で先日、中国人オペラ歌手がロシア民謡を歌うパフォーマンスを実施。 news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/8c233…

rusbureau @rusbureau

中国企業は、ロシア軍が戦闘を継続するために必要な物資をロシアに輸出している：「マイクロチップ、アルミナ、その他の軍民両用の品目の輸出拡大は、西側諸国によるロシアの戦争阻止の圧力を損なっている」 wsj.com/articles/chine… via @WSJ

戦車 @MoterSensha

中国はロシアにウクライナ戦争継続に必要な物資を売っている moscowtimes.ru/2022/07/15/oae… 中国はロシアに武器を売っていないと主張し、ロシアへの累積輸出量は減少しているが、軍備に適した一部のデュアルユース商品の出荷量は急増している。

戦車 @MoterSensha

欧米諸国は、ロシアに対して高度なプロセッサーを含む先端技術の販売に制裁を課している。中国は後者の生産方法を知らないが、全体として今年1〜5月のロシア向けチップの出荷量は2001年の同時期に比べ2倍以上になったと、中国の税関統計を分析した『ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナル』が報じている。

戦車 @MoterSensha

ロシア軍の戦車が冷蔵庫や食器洗い機から取り出したチップを発見したと伝えられていることから、このような出荷でチップ不足の一部を補うことができるようだ。

戦車 @MoterSensha

軍備や航空宇宙に必要なアルミニウムの製造に使われるアルミナの輸出は、1年間で400倍に増加しました。輸出額の増加の一部はインフレに起因するものだが、中国のテクノロジー製品の売り手は、米国の監視にもかかわらず、ロシアとの取引を続けていることを示すデータである、とWSJは書いている。

戦車 @MoterSensha

国連の国際貿易統計データベース「COMTRADE」の2020年版によると、中国は以前から重要部品の主要供給国で、半導体の57％、集積回路の20％をロシアに供給している。

戦車 @MoterSensha

昨年は、ロシアの全輸入量の約4分の1を占めていた。しかし、ウクライナ戦争勃発以降、総出荷量は減少し、5月の中国のロシア向け輸出は2021年下半期の平均を38％下回ったとピーターソン国際経済研究所は算出している。