1991 IAEA チェルノブイリレポートの抜粋

Jun Makino @jun_makino

1991 IAEA レポート http://t.co/nMh5CMTnfD THE INTERNATIONAL CHERNOBYL PROJECT AN OVERVIEW

Jun Makino @jun_makino

いわゆる、「今ココ」的なものとして参考になるであろうもの。以下引 用 (4 章の最後のほうから )

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: The official data that were examined did not indicate a marked increase in the incidence of leukaemia or cancers.

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: However, the data were not detailed enough to exclude the possibility of an increase in the incidence of some tumour types.

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: Reported absorbed thyroid dose estimates in children are such that there may be a statistically detectable increase

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: in the incidence of thyroid tumours in the future.

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: On the basis of the doses estimated by the Project and currently accepted radiation risk estimates,

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: future increases over the natural incidence of cancers or hereditary effects would be difficult to discern,

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: even with large and well designed long term epidemiclogical studies.

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: Reported adverse health effects attributed to radiation have not been substantiated either by those local studies

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: which were adequately performed or by the studies under the Project.

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: Many of the local clinical investigations of health effects had been done poorly,

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: producing confusing, often contradictory results.

Jun Makino @jun_makino

甲状腺がんについてはこんな感じ

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: Review of USSR data indicated that reported cancer incidence had been rising for the last decade

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: (starting before the Chernobyl accident occurred) and has continued to rise since the accident.

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: The Project team considered that there had been incomplete reporting in the past and could not assess whether the rise is

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: due to increased incidence, methodological differences, better detection and diagnosis or other causes.

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: The data did not reveal a marked increase in leukaemia or thyroid tumours since the accident;

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: however, owing to the classification scheme used and other factors, the possibility of an increase in the incidence

Jun Makino @jun_makino

IAEA1991: of these tumours cannot be excluded. Only hearsay information relating to such tumours was available.

Jun Makino @jun_makino

要約すると 91 年時点での IAEA レポートでは、チェルノブイリの影響でのがん等の健康被害は一切見つかっていない。ひょっとすると将来には小児甲状腺がんは統計的に検出できるくらい発生するかもしれない。被害がでているといういろいろな報告があるけど全部信用できない、と書いてある。