Jason Bordorffダボス所感（2018年1月25-26日）

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

Al-Falih notes estimates of 500-800kbd per year shale growth but questions sustainability of that. Even so, that’s not enough, so “I don’t lose sleep” over shale. twitter.com/jasonbordoff/s…

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

Al-Falih, Novak, @SecretaryPerry, Pradhan, @DanielYergin talking about energy market outlook now @Davos #WEF18 #Davos2018 pic.twitter.com/CLKpwvWc6T

2018-01-25 02:32:27

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

You know it’s a good panel when Barkindo & @IEABirol are sitting in the audience twitter.com/javierblas2/st…

Javier Blas @JavierBlas

Quite an #energy panel in #Davos today: Al-Falih of #SaudiArabia, Novak of #Russia, and Perry of the US. Combined, they "represent" more than 1/3 of global #oil production. #Davos18 #OOTT pic.twitter.com/1OP1b0lG6f

2018-01-25 02:43:57

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

Good video. And Read The Box. It’s an awesome book twitter.com/joannechiuhk/s…

Joanne Chiu @joannechiuhk

How a steel box transformed how we send and receive goods around the world. wsj.com/articles/a-bri… via @WSJ

2018-01-25 09:43:46

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

Remember this MIT study about how shale estimates are too high? We took a closer look. In short, headlines were overstated & study does not mean shale boom is coming to an end energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/comme… twitter.com/KleinmanEnergy…

Kleinman Energy @KleinmanEnergy

Study from MIT suggests @EIAgov's #shale oil and #gas production forecasts are too high, and too reliant on technology improvements. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… @TimLoh @jpolson9 #EIA pic.twitter.com/oltP73DqpJ

2017-12-07 00:09:01

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

60 heads of state but only one (Trump) commands a crowd like this waiting for a glimpse #Davos2018 pic.twitter.com/QP3COdgn4s

拡大

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

@MEGAVUCA As a member of ONS18 committee, I clearly made the wrong choice staying in Davos.

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

“For the last 40 years, since the Arab oil embargo, we’ve had a mindset of energy scarcity. As a result of the shale revolution, the US has emerged as an energy superpower." Good @JavierBlas2 take on consequences of historic 10mbd milestone. W my comments bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

My take on the energy and climate mood this week in #davos2018 @ColumbiaUEnergy @Columbia pic.twitter.com/0r7OHngh8n

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

@JavierBlas2 @tictoc I think I made the right call watching the speech online while enjoying this view pic.twitter.com/GL3oahvmO0

拡大

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

Evidently, the hype about energy use and economic growth "decoupling" was overblown. I'm shocked. @RobertStavins nyti.ms/2Fhgay4

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

A few thoughts on the energy and climate mood in #Davos2018 this year as my train rolls away through the gorgeous Swiss countryside. Three big themes around climate, energy markets, technology.

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

The most striking thing about the mood in Davos this year is the tremendous optimism business leaders have about the global economic outlook. That's bullish for energy demand and prices (not great for GHG emissions btw)

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

Many of the most prominent world leaders noted the threat of climate change as among the top challenges the world faces today. Modi placed it first, along with terrorism & globalization backlash. Macron pledged to shut down coal plants by 2021.

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

Leaders lamented Trump's retreat from climate action, particularly US withdrawal from the Paris agreement, and applauded China's leadership to promote renewables & reduce GHG emissions and pollution (even as its emissions rose last year, see NYT story)

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

In general, there was a mood of optimism & excitement about the energy transition. A sense that Trump can't slow things down because tech is advancing, other nations, cities, states are leading & businesses are stepping up to the climate challenge with new pressure from investors

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

For me, the optimism was encouraging, but far too much happy talk that ignores the reality of climate math--how vast the gap remains between where we are headed and what is needed to hit Paris targets, nevertheless 2 degrees.

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

On energy, big story is US--in 2 ways. First, reemergence as a global energy superpower, w oil output set to overtake Russia & Saudi. Energy firms and producers buoyed by recent price rise but worried rapid rise of shale will send down again. Get ready for volatility @Bob_McNally

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

Second, concerns about geopolitical risk--and how much of that now emanates from Washington because of unpredictability and reckless rhetoric from Trump.

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

Other top geopolitical concerns are N Korea along with Sunni-Shia tensions in the Middle East.

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

Populism and retreat from free trade and globalization also high on agenda, with risks to energy markets. Trudeau came to defend benefits of NAFTA. Trump's solar tariff decision exacerbates worries about possible trade war.

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

Al-Falih hinted that 2018 IPO timing was flexible, reiterated commitment to producer agreement, and played down hype about shale.

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

Novak seemed to go out of his way to remind everyone that all agreements must come to an end. Russia remains concerned about impact of high prices on other source of supply & ruble.

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

The dominant role of China in all things energy was evident in all discussions. Leaders applauded China's efforts to boost renewables and reduce GHG emissions and air pollution

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

China's the leader in clean energy and natural gas, and their efforts to "make skies blue again" viewed as supporting natural gas market (has already lifted LNG prices nearly 2X)

Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff

On technology, business leaders, including tradition energy companies, recognize that the pace of change should not be underestimated. Rapid declines in costs of batteries, renewables & more were rightly celebrated.