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uchida_kawasaki
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COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
c. As we have seen elsewhere, clustering in office settings can lead to very high attack rates. e.g Case study from S. Korea: 1143 workers tested in a call centre with a 8.5% attack rate (97 PCR+ve). 9/n wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
2020-09-24 09:02:54
COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
In the absence of proper contact tracing and control measures employed, serological testing in this cohort is likely to show a high attack rate unrepresentative of the seroepidemiological situation in the Greater Seoul region. 10/n
2020-09-24 09:02:55
COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
d. No independent validation is done on the rapid IgG/igM test kit used used for the purpose of the survey (Aurora Biomed). Independent analysis by the FDA found less than ideal sensitivity for the test kit. Note: C.I range for sensitivity and PPV 11/n accessdata.fda.gov/cdrh_docs/pres… pic.twitter.com/3q99kStA26
2020-09-24 09:02:57
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COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
The test kit in question has also been banned in Peru for sensitivity issues. 12/n digemid.minsa.gob.pe/upload/uploade… pic.twitter.com/mhnMpkmCOu
2020-09-24 09:02:59
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COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
e. With the reported sensitivity, i'll leave you to calculate FP ratio for testing in an asymptomatic population. Also number of samples assayed is heavily underpowered to provide quantitative data that can be used to extrapolate community prevalence in Tokyo (pop. 14M). 13/n pic.twitter.com/ry37YQJEvU
2020-09-24 09:03:02
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COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
f. The authors fail to mention that random testing conducted by the ministry of health in Japan found just 0.17% of the population have antibodies to SARS-COV-2 in Tokyo in Early June (just after 1st surge) for a 1% IFR. 14/n mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_11…
2020-09-24 09:03:03
COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
Sample size for the survey - 3000 (IgG on Abbott/Roche and neutralization assay). 15/n mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_12…
2020-09-24 09:03:05
COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
g. At the peak of its 2nd surge, test positivity was just under 7% from ~4.5k PCR sample per day (weekdays). Peak of ICU usage 105 in 1st surge vs 38 2nd surge. Control measures between 1st and 2nd surge largely similar in Tokyo. 16/n stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp pic.twitter.com/dvIIvBHmyH
2020-09-24 09:03:07
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COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
At first surge, people stayed home with rising infections (jmaj.jp/detail.php?id=…), mass gatherings banned and extensive contact tracing which was was widely applied in handling second surge. 17/n bloomberg.com/news/articles/… pic.twitter.com/55XSsr978s
2020-09-24 09:03:22
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COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
Due to increased mixing from self isolation fatigue, people started mixing again and a 2nd surge arose with local governments re-recommending early closure of restaurants, bar closure, school closure and people discouraged people from traveling. 18/n theguardian.com/world/2020/jul…
2020-09-24 09:03:23
COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
Very effective public health measures and a self-isolating public have managed to prevent widespread epidemic spread in Tokyo. The virus didn't magically caused low levels of infection during 1st surge and suddenly infected ~50% of the population within weeks for 2nd surge. 19/n pic.twitter.com/SocNUCy7Ga
2020-09-24 09:03:24
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COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
Overall this is a very poor study whose results should not be widely interpreted to the greater Tokyo population. At best this study should only be generalized as analyzing seroepidemiological outcomes for one company in Tokyo. 20/n
2020-09-24 09:03:25
COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
Follow up 1: This comment may have not been very clear, Reference is to both specificity, sensitivity and underpowering issues affecting FP rate, poor PPV in the cohort being tested and extrapolation of results from the study pop. to Tokyo pop. twitter.com/CovidSerology/…
2020-09-24 17:56:03
COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
Follow up 2: Others have also pointed out how oddly antibodies in this cohort peak way (1 month) before peak in 2nd surge. Based on what we know about antibody kinetics, antibodies should peak at or just second surge peak twitter.com/AdamJKucharski…
2020-09-24 17:59:49
Adam Kucharski
@adamjkucharski
This study is getting some attention, but results look odd – if group developed antibodies during 2nd outbreak, would expect increase in seroprevalence to occur near the August peak, rather than a few weeks beforehand (during period with few cases)... medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 1/ pic.twitter.com/38IWclb1n0
2020-09-24 17:22:38
mm
@tyonarock
東京集団免疫のプレプリント。結論 「a very poor study」 このvery poor studyに貴重なお時間を使わせてしまい、申し訳ない。 ペルーで使用禁止になった抗体検査キットを使ってたのか、、、 twitter.com/CovidSerology/…
2020-09-25 19:22:05
クリエネ（出口戦略なしの緩和がコロナ禍を引き延ばす）
@morecleanenergy
No, no, the study is poor! twitter.com/holmenkollin/s…
2020-09-25 21:52:06
Corona Realism
@holmenkollin
+++BREAKING+++ Heutiger Preprint berichtet unglaubliche 46% (!) Durchseuchung (IgM+IgG) im Großraum Tokyo. In Japan wurde wenig getestet, nahezu keine Zwangsmaßnahmen. (Wie Schweden, nur viel weniger Tote!) IFR gerade mal 0.0006% ->KEIN Killervirus! medrxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/MP9gHzzzMj
2020-09-24 00:21:51
内田
@uchida_kawasaki
機械翻訳＞全体として、これは非常に貧弱な研究であり、その結果をより多くの東京の人口に広く解釈すべきではありません。 せいぜいこの研究は、東京の1つの会社の血清疫学的結果を分析することとしてのみ一般化されるべきです。
2020-09-26 07:57:43
クリエネ（出口戦略なしの緩和がコロナ禍を引き延ばす）
@morecleanenergy
著者の一人、Ahnが「免責事項」について述べているツイートとスレッドです。 twitter.com/AndrewCAhn2/st… togetter.com/li/1598014#c82… 「【論文プレプリント】『第二波における東京の無症候性集団間のCOVID-19血..」togetter.com/li/1598014 にコメントしました。
2020-09-26 09:19:55
Andrew C Ahn
@AndrewCAhn2
@rfsquared @bealelab @BallouxFrancois @stevebrown2856 Disclaimer: I was involved later in the project after assays were collected (I provided clinical perspective, analyses and writing). However, we were really surprised how stable the results were. Tests were intentionally obtained sequentially to test stability.
2020-09-24 09:50:35
Andrew C Ahn
@AndrewCAhn2
@rfsquared @bealelab @BallouxFrancois @stevebrown2856 Disclaimer: I was involved later in the project after assays were collected (I provided clinical perspective, analyses and writing). However, we were really surprised how stable the results were. Tests were intentionally obtained sequentially to test stability.
2020-09-24 09:50:35
Andrew C Ahn
@AndrewCAhn2
@rfsquared @bealelab @BallouxFrancois @stevebrown2856 The test itself (Aurora Rapid COVID Test) reportedly had IgM 100% Sens, 100% Specificty, IgG 96.7% Sens, 97.5% Spec when measured against CDC ELISA and Mt Sinai's RBD IgG ELISA assays. So I think it's a pretty decent test (as rapid tests go) accessdata.fda.gov/cdrh_docs/pres…
2020-09-24 09:55:30
COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
@AndrewCAhn2 @rfsquared @bealelab @BallouxFrancois @stevebrown2856 I am sorry but your link is not the test used. Aurora Rapid COVID Test actually has reported values of IgM 66.7% Sens, 100% Specificty, IgG 76.7% Sens, 97.5% Spec. accessdata.fda.gov/cdrh_docs/pres… pic.twitter.com/uMz0OuO5aA
2020-09-25 03:55:47
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COVID Impact
@CovidSerology
@AndrewCAhn2 @rfsquared @bealelab @BallouxFrancois @stevebrown2856 The questionable nature of the conclusions in this paper is less surprising given that as a co-author you are misquoting reported IgM and IgG sensitivity and specificity for the test kit used. pic.twitter.com/iHAXHeiO6h
2020-09-25 04:07:20
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