英国の疫学専門家、アダム・クチャルスキー先生のお題「今、コロナで一番強い立場の国は？」に対する皆さんの回答

Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski

@ScienceShared Would agree with a lot of those, although Portugal & Denmark probably stand out for me given high coverage, Delta already clearly established, and relatively low case levels.

Alasdair Munro @apsmunro

@AdamJKucharski @ScienceShared You've given the answers away too quickly Adam

🇮🇪 @PopNationalism

@ScienceShared @AdamJKucharski It's the same countries as ever - Taiwan, NZ, Singapore etc. Why? Because they have demonstrated policy-making competence. They understand the nature of the problem so they can deal with whatever comes their way. Vax % is trivial. You're safer unvaxed in NZ than vaxed in USA.

retired account @per7

@ScienceShared @AdamJKucharski Sweden is hard to judge, testing levels seem to be very low.

dominic @bockers56

@ScienceShared @AdamJKucharski I would say nations, mainly in the developing world,with relatively young, healthy populations, particularly where population immunity levels are high. twitter.com/bockers56/stat…

dominic @bockers56

@NickCohen4 There may be more important aid priorities. Younger, fitter healthier Nepal for example has experienced more widespread Covid infection than the U.K., yet around a sixth of our mortality. The pandemic is almost certainly over there. news.cn/english/2021-0…

2021-09-26 16:57:36

Friends just call me J @CovidFlyPaper

@ScienceShared @AdamJKucharski IMO the problem a country like Sweden faces (and us!) is that even if the acute impact of the virus on mortality rates fades, high exposure means they face an uncertain future public health burden - Longcovid, maybe some other issues which manifest slowly etc.

Jorge Rodrigues @drjfcrodrigues

@sgdambrauskas @apsmunro @ScienceShared @AdamJKucharski Portugal has yet to withdraw restrictions. We will do so Oct 1. So let's see. We're optimistic 😉

Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski

@apsmunro @ScienceShared I'd say it's more an opinion than the answer!

Third Reviewer @3rd_reviewer

@AdamJKucharski @apsmunro @ScienceShared Just out of curiosity: what makes the position of the UK weaker? High level of cases right now? Too little vaccination below 16 yo?

Wait 4 Waves 📯 @wavewaiter

@3rd_reviewer @AdamJKucharski @apsmunro @ScienceShared the vaccination rate of the UK is not impressive within EU. The denominator is the total population (Portugal has 13% under 14)! pic.twitter.com/xsa9PIjvPE

拡大

Third Reviewer @3rd_reviewer

@wavewaiter @AdamJKucharski @apsmunro @ScienceShared Sure, although data on antibody as per ONS (~95% among over16) shows that even those that are not vaccinated have been mostly already infected. So yes, below 16 there is probably quite a lot of susceptible people. Above that? Not that much...

retired account @per7

@3rd_reviewer @wavewaiter @AdamJKucharski @apsmunro @ScienceShared I'm not sure how much protection previous infection offers, compared to vaccinations.

Third Reviewer @3rd_reviewer

@per7 @wavewaiter @AdamJKucharski @apsmunro @ScienceShared I am not an expert and I am not sure there are hard data for delta but there is no reason to think it to be drastically worse than vaccines in terms of protection against severe disease. Also number of reinfections are still very small according to PHE

Paul Mainwood @PaulMainwood

@AdamJKucharski Rich ones with high vaccination rates in the oldest. Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Denmark, Norway. Not UK - similar, but rates uncomfortably high now. Not France, Israel, HK - overall coverage good, but gaps in oldest. Not Aus or NZ - until demonstrate better vaccine coverage.

Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski

I've got my own thoughts, but would be interested to hear others: which country (or countries) are now in strongest position against COVID going forward? Not places that were potentially in strong position 6 months ago or a year ago, but based on situation right now.

Rufus Spivey Green @RufusSG

@PaulMainwood @AdamJKucharski I'm going to make a bold suggestion, which could well end up wrong, but I think the UK is fairly well placed for the near future. High recent attack rate should ensure plenty immune heading into winter, excellent vaccination coverage and a booster campaign in fully swing.

Paul Mainwood @PaulMainwood

@RufusSG @AdamJKucharski I want to believe.

Michael @MikeGal041

@PaulMainwood @AdamJKucharski Those countries still have quite strong restrictions, except for Norway/Denmark but they only removed remaining restrictions very recently. So too early to tell how good position they are in. Meantime England had restrictions removed 10 weeks ago & numbers still look in control.

Dave @daveyinge

@MikeGal041 @PaulMainwood @AdamJKucharski Restrictions in Norway were very light even up to Saturday. It was mainly mass gatherings and nightclubs that weren't permitted.

Tano @BalladOfGaetano

@PaulMainwood @AdamJKucharski Australia's biggest problem isn't vaccination. We'll hit those targets. It's irrational fear. Typically Australian.

Here for now @herefornow02

@AdamJKucharski Japan. Same vax rate as Germany now and the have demonstrated that even without vaccination they can limit contagion. Death rate is 50 times lower than W.Europe