英国の疫学専門家、アダム・クチャルスキー先生のお題「今、コロナで一番強い立場の国は?」に対する皆さんの回答
Epidemiologist/mathematician. Co-director of @LSHTM_CEPR and @TEDFellow. Author of The Rules of Contagion. Views own.
I've got my own thoughts, but would be interested to hear others: which country (or countries) are now in strongest position against COVID going forward? Not places that were potentially in strong position 6 months ago or a year ago, but based on situation right now.
2021-09-27 23:28:10@Ksukhia @AdamJKucharski interesting how Sweden is just ignored now
2021-09-27 23:38:31@AdamJKucharski Have to say Denmark look like they’ve got things in hand.
2021-09-27 23:30:54@Dannyoconnor430 @AdamJKucharski If Carlsberg did epidemiological management . . .
2021-09-28 02:39:22@AdamJKucharski Spain- high vax, high immunity from infection & vax, low and rapidly falling current incidence, clement winter climate. Would like to see more testing and sequencing there though.
2021-09-27 23:31:00@AdamJKucharski Australia clearly in the worst situation of all. Not worth living in a post-Covid world based on how things are going there.
2021-09-27 23:31:30@eclectictwit @AdamJKucharski Australia may well become the #1 vaccinated "large" country, definitely in the top few. Not sure they'd rank last. NZ will be far worse. Vaccination is dropping off quickly, still afraid of anyone catching covid at all, no past infection at all. No path forward.
2021-09-27 23:35:06@AdamJKucharski Taiwan and New Zealand?
2021-09-27 23:31:34@AdamJKucharski I'd like to say Ireland, given the incredible vaccine uptake (and other positives as well); but government here is generally weak on investment in public health (reflecting lack of appreciation for the same), and I suspect vaccination alone isn't going to cut it yet.
2021-09-27 23:32:36@statsepi @AdamJKucharski Just back to UK from a week in Ireland (Dublin, Dingle, Kinsale). Hugely impressed at virtually 100% observance of mask-wearing and having vaccination status rigorously checked at every single restaurant and cafe visited. Control measures like that should help.
2021-09-27 23:45:13@apsmunro @AdamJKucharski Denmark is definitely in a good place right now. Fully re-opened and still hospitalisations are declining. High vaccine acceptance. Booster shots for vulnerable/elderly before the virus starts to spread more easily. Still free and easily available tests
2021-09-27 23:36:29@billybillson12 @AdamJKucharski Doubt NZ. Not healthy to be so scared of every case, although reality may start to hit soon unless they stay closed away. Their epidemic still likely to be in the future
2021-09-27 23:35:51@AdamJKucharski Rep of Ireland has the highest vax % in Europe and dropping all restrictions in just over 3 weeks !
2021-09-27 23:33:43@Conor_987 @AdamJKucharski Iceland, Portugal, Spain, Denmark, Norway all have higher vaccination rates.
2021-09-28 00:04:10@AdamJKucharski UK is probably #1. Large vax coverage but insanely high past infection coverage. If you discount the path it took to get there, they're the best suited to handle Covid going forward imo. If the past factors in at all, Australia/Singapore/Iceland ?
2021-09-27 23:33:53@AdamJKucharski Portugal now I’d say. 80%+ vax uptake and similar attack rate to uk if cases representative pic.twitter.com/knQMtTeYcu
2021-09-27 23:33:58@PaulMainwood @AdamJKucharski See ya 🛫✈️🛩 🇪🇸 #5weekstogo
2021-09-27 23:43:08@KrauthBen @eclectictwit @AdamJKucharski People should be afraid of catching COVID. Damage to major organs can lead to disability as well as long COVID, which people can get even with a mild case. What percentage of the population is "OK" to become disabled?
2021-09-28 04:53:00@5Explorer @KrauthBen @AdamJKucharski No good can come of fear. Take reasonable precautions based on one's personal profile. My daughter is exceedingly low risk-- vanishingly small risk. I'm above avg for my age w history of ME/CFS. So I've used an N95 indoors since Jan 2020. But I don't want lockdowns or mandates.
2021-09-28 11:20:18