Kamil Galeev氏の「5月9日戦勝記念日の「動員」どうなる？」

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

May 9, the Victory Day is a crucial symbolic date. We should expect the Victory Parade and Putin's speech to the nation on that day. What is he gonna say? Many are pondering whether he will: 1. Declare war on Ukraine 2. Declare mass mobilisation in Russia Let's discuss both🧵 pic.twitter.com/LUvqRyUsLu

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Let's start with the question - why Putin didn't declare the war on Ukraine yet? Well, probably because he didn't expect any serious resistance. Kremlin planned for another Czechoslovakia 1968 and was very much surprised it didn't happen. Hence the "Special Operation" terminology pic.twitter.com/HbWJDc80Js

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Planning for another pacification of an East European satellite state, Moscow unexpectedly got into a major war it didn't prepare for. Since they didn't prepare for a war, they declared neither a war, nor a martial law. Which had major consequences for the course of this war

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Russian state policies may not be legal. But they absolutely are procedural. It is a machine acting according to an algorithm. More specifically, the war and the martial law are largely regulated by the algorithm described in 30.01.2002 г. № 1-ФКЗ. Which has not been activated pic.twitter.com/Yv6AlNhGHf

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

As the martial law algorithm was not activated, procedurally speaking Russia is now in peace. Thus all the peace time procedures are still valid. In practical terms, it means that the army, the National Guard and other contractors can just leave their job. See Strelkov's lament: pic.twitter.com/S1K94WucZX

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Many either leave their jobs or refuse to go to war. According to Russian media, dozens or hundreds of Krasnodar OMON, Crimean marines, Pskov airborne, soldiers from South Ossetia, Hakas National Guard refused to fight. Watch a dialogue of a National Guard boss with his fighters: pic.twitter.com/ZkLO4hXesX

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In other words, desertion from the Russian military is now legal as long as you are a paid contractor. Ofc army and National Guard bosses try to prevent that. Some issue executive orders forbidding the military to quite their jobs until "their special goals are completed" pic.twitter.com/Hm5YW5NmoK

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Some commanders try to destroy the record of the military who quit, putting a special notes or stamps into their military IDs (военный билет), personnel files, etc. That however has little effect on your future unless you plan to work for the state. Besides, you can sue them pic.twitter.com/c7Zkl7YC4g

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Those troops who already departed to war and were later returned, refused to go again. For example, after the VDV were massacred in Ukraine, around 100 airborne from Pskov who were returned home from Belarus, refused to go to the war again rus.err.ee/1608558379/gla…

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In practical terms that means that the ability of Russia to regroup, withdrawing its forces from the North (Kyiv) in order to send everyone to the East (Donbass) was probably exaggerated. Many of those who already been to Ukraine and were returned to Russia simply won't go again. pic.twitter.com/LgFQFBuWcf

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Situation with conscripts is a bit different. Technically sending conscripts to Ukraine is illegal. And yet, they did it ofc. Russian state basically admitted it, and Putin ordered the military prosecutors to "investigate the case". My prediction: no army boss will be punished pic.twitter.com/qD3CovmWaN

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Putin using conscripts in a foreign war was very predictable. Since at least the New Year, the Soldiers mothers NGO was getting tons of calls from concerned parents whose conscripted sons were transferred to the Ukrainian border. There were so many of them, it couldn't be a drill

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

"Go and take them from there" a secretary of the Soldiers' mothers would tell. "Or just tell them to run away, hide somewhere and write complaints to the military prosecutors" "But not a single daughter of a bitch, not a single son of a bitch didn't go anywhere" concludes she pic.twitter.com/XcZJNE4jEn

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In other words, parents of conscripted soldiers could totally use the procedural nature of the Russian state to prevent their sons from being sent to Ukraine. Nobody did. Why? Partly because of the lack of agency. Russian state extirpated any forms of agency for centuries

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Uprooted sense of agency & personal responsibility is an elephant in the room. After this war Russians will need a rehabilitation course to regain them again. But such a rehabilitation is incompatible with the existence of the Russian state which uprooted them in the first place

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Dismantling of the Russian state is necessary not only for preventing further attempts of imperial restoration and thus large military conficts but as a necessary condition for a rehabilitation which would restore the sense of agency and personal responsibility

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Majority of the Russian population believe they can't do anything, their personal actions have no impact and the best they can do is submit. Which is not wrong. In such massive empire their voice has no weight and no impact. Thus the empire must be dismantled to smaller polities

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Tsars, Communists, Putin, all worked hard to uproot the personal agency in Russia. Navalny & Co. will work even harder, should they take power. Dismantling the empire will scale the politics down which is a prerequisite for people regaining the feeling that their actions matter