「世界人口が今後30年で減少に転じる」という、常識を覆す「未来予測」の真意

25
牧野アンドレ @もうすぐ🇺🇳🇹🇷 @andre_makino

国連の統計では2100年までに世界の人口は110億人を越すと言われているが、”Empty Planet“の著者D. Brickerは、統計を見直しそれに対して意義を唱える。 彼は世界の人口は2050年に80億人に到達した以降減少すると予測。人口減少に向けた社会・インフラ整備を提言。 amazon.com/Empty-Planet-G…

2019-02-05 04:06:06
松田久一 @matsudahisakazu

#空っぽの地球 #Empty planet が刺激的。前々から人口予測はおかしいと思っていたが、海外の研究者がやってくれた。人口の予測の鍵は世代区分と人口特殊出生率だ。この本はこの手法を用いた地球の人口爆発は間違っていると主張。予測ではケニア人口は急増。しかし、ある変数を入れると結果は変わる。 pic.twitter.com/LV8qxBo2rJ

2019-02-13 17:30:42
拡大
松田久一 @matsudahisakazu

それは、女性の教育水準。この変数に入れると人口は減少する。従って、教育水準の変数を導入すると、将来地球は空っぽになると言う。日本の年金の支払いの基礎である人口予測もおかしい。世代区分を変えたり、人口特殊出生率に影響する諸変数を分析したりすべきなのにしない。統計不信より深刻です。

2019-02-13 17:30:43
Inside Higher Ed @insidehighered

"Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline" isn't worried enough about the U.S. (opinion) ihenow.com/2tszS5V pic.twitter.com/T0nzTuUAPY

2019-02-20 13:02:00
拡大
リンク www.insidehighered.com Is 'Empty Planet' Too Little Worried About the U.S.? | Technology and Learning Glimpsing our future in South Korea. 8
CBC Newfoundland and Labrador @CBCNL

A Canadian political scientist believes the world's population will peak in 2050, then decline indefinitely. cbc.ca/1.5009923

2019-02-16 13:30:00
リンク CBC 'Empty Planet': Is the threat of overpopulation a myth? | CBC Radio For decades, the United Nations has been sounding the alarm about the potentially catastrophic consequences of global population growth. Empty Planet co-author Darrell Bricker says the opposite is true. 603
Darrell Bricker @darrellbricker

Empty Planet makes it on to CBC’ bestseller list. The bestselling Canadian books for the week of Feb. 10-16, 2019 | CBC Books cbc.ca/books/the-best…

2019-02-22 02:47:17
Darrell Bricker @darrellbricker

May daughter ⁦@GlobalsoftPirka⁩ created this wonderful pic of two of her creations reading Empty Planet. The prefect birthday present! pic.twitter.com/jjIWoXmqfw

2019-02-23 22:53:08
拡大
Darrell Bricker @darrellbricker

Interesting take in Forbes on Empty Planet. Global Population Decline And Economic Growth forbes.com/sites/billcone…

2019-02-24 03:45:22
Darrell Bricker @darrellbricker

In the L.A. Times today. Essay on new book from ⁦@JohnIbbitson⁩ and me, Empty Planet. Forget overpopulation. The world could soon face a population bust - Los Angeles Times latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/…

2019-02-25 00:32:30
John Ibbitson @JohnIbbitson

Great to see. EMPTY PLANET has debuted at #9 on the Globe and Mail bestseller list and #8 on the Toronto Star list. @darrellbricker and I are really grateful to folks for showing such an interest in our book.

2019-02-16 06:40:07
John Ibbitson @JohnIbbitson

That would be a terrible mistake and a misreading of our book. Here’s hoping no one tries to distort the message of EMPTY PLANET that way. twitter.com/broscosmoline/…

2019-02-18 06:05:13
dan kershaw @broscosmoline

@McClellandBooks @JohnIbbitson @darrellbricker @globeandmail @TorontoStar Hi John - Dan Kershaw here. I missed the talk/presentation, but a friend with a skeptical nature took it in and was very impressed. I understand there were those in the audience who were worried that governments & NGOs will ease up on efforts to fight global warming?

2019-02-17 10:28:51
John Ibbitson @JohnIbbitson

Here's a Q & A on EMPTY PLANET that appears in Deseret News. deseretnews.com/article/900056…

2019-02-21 01:30:14
John Ibbitson @JohnIbbitson

The New Statesman, on EMPTY PLANET: "The beauty of this book is that it links hard-to-grasp global trends to the easy-to-understand individual choices being made all over the world today." 1/3

2019-02-22 00:01:37
John Ibbitson @JohnIbbitson

"The authors roam the globe eavesdropping on conversations with young women contemplating having their own families…2/3 twitter.com/JohnIbbitson/s…

2019-02-22 00:02:07
John Ibbitson @JohnIbbitson

"Empty Planet, already a gripping narrative of a world on the cusp of profound change, is even better for having been written by two Canadians, whose country remains a model of international integration." 3/3 twitter.com/JohnIbbitson/s…

2019-02-22 00:03:13
John Ibbitson @JohnIbbitson

If you get NPR, @darrellbricker and I are on at 11:05 ET to discuss EMPTY PLANET.

2019-02-22 01:02:53
John Ibbitson @JohnIbbitson

More than three years ago, when we were starting out on EMPTY PLANET, @darrellbricker told me his dream was to see our book in Shakespeare & Co., the iconic Paris bookstore. Today, when he walked in, there it was. “I almost cried,” he confessed. twitter.com/darrellbricker…

2019-02-22 04:48:33
Darrell Bricker @darrellbricker

More than cool to walk into Shakespeare and Company in Paris and see your book for sale. ⁦@JohnIbbitsonpic.twitter.com/lidoh6xMUq

2019-02-22 04:30:42
WIRED @WIRED

The UN predicts global population will soon explode. But after painstakingly breaking down the numbers for themselves, the authors of 'Empty Planet' arrived at a drastically different prediction for the future of the human species: wired.trib.al/my8dlGv pic.twitter.com/LcyUAzsNH5

2019-02-15 15:18:31
リンク WIRED The World Might Actually Run Out of People The United Nations predicts that the global population will soon explode. In Empty Planet, John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker argue they're dead wrong. 24803
WIRED.jp @wired_jp

「世界人口が今後30年で減少に転じる」という、常識を覆す「未来予測」の真意 wired.jp/2019/02/20/wor… #最新記事

2019-02-20 17:35:17
リンク WIRED.jp 「世界人口が今後30年で減少に転じる」という、常識を覆す「未来予測」の真意|WIRED.jp 2050年までに地球上には90億の人間が溢れ、2100年には110億人にまで膨れあがる──。そんな国連の予測に異議を唱える書籍が米国で話題になっている。米国で2月5日に発売された『Empty Planet(無人の惑星)』の著者ふたりは、なぜ 71 users 1484
WIRED.jp @wired_jp

2050年までに地球上には90億の人間が溢れ、2100年には110億人にまで膨れあがる──。そんな国連の予測に異議を唱える書籍が米国で話題になっている。bit.ly/2tuGvVt

2019-02-24 20:00:09