イスラエル2回目のロックダウンが非常に有効かつ早く感染抑止効果が出た理由 #休校 #マスク #集会禁止 #無症状候性感染 (2020.10.24作成)

内田 @uchida_kawasaki

イスラエル学校再開での感染拡大の件、追加しました。「新型コロナウイルス 小児は感染しづらい？他に感染させない？少しずつわかってきた事(2020.8.1作成) #キャンプ #休校 #学校再開」 togetter.com/li/1568903

内田 @uchida_kawasaki

When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well. - The New York Times nytimes.com/2020/08/04/wor…

内田 @uchida_kawasaki

機械翻訳＞イスラエル政府は、コロナウイルスに打ち勝ったと確信して、5月に生徒を学校に戻しました。 数日以内に、エルサレムの高校で感染が報告されました。 それは、おそらく世界で、イスラエルの単一の学校で最大の発生となった。

mm @tyonarock

イスラエルの2回目のロックダウンが非常に有効で1回目の厳しいロックダウンより早く効果が出たというスレ。 2回目のロックダウンの方が緩く、閉鎖したのは学校のみ。それと集まりを禁止した。 今回新たに付け加えたのは 　　　　　　マスク😷の義務化 twitter.com/segal_eran/sta…

Eran Segal @segal_eran

Second lockdown? In Israel, the first to impose a 2nd lockdown: 1. Surprisingly, the 2nd lockdown worked faster and more effectively than the 1st, despite being less tight 2. The effect differed across subpopulations, suggesting that differential policies may be effective pic.twitter.com/heem5ov8bC

2020-10-21 03:07:44

mm @tyonarock

イスラエルがなぜ2回目のロックダウンをする事態になったのか、という反省と教訓のスレ。 参考になる。 twitter.com/segal_eran/sta…

Eran Segal @segal_eran

Israel: What went wrong? How did we come to lead the COVID-19 cases chart? What caused the 2nd wave, why was it so bad, and is the lockdown working? A thread on Israel, the first country to impose a second lockdown, with lots of (don’t do) lessons to teach the world @EricTopol pic.twitter.com/6IbclRhy4a

2020-10-07 22:21:06

内田 @uchida_kawasaki

やはり休校は感染症対策として効果ありますね。 空気感染・飛沫感染が感染経路の多く(ほぼ？)占めるからマスクも同じく。 twitter.com/tyonarock/stat…

Eran Segal @segal_eran

Second lockdown? In Israel, the first to impose a 2nd lockdown: 1. Surprisingly, the 2nd lockdown worked faster and more effectively than the 1st, despite being less tight 2. The effect differed across subpopulations, suggesting that differential policies may be effective pic.twitter.com/heem5ov8bC

拡大

Eran Segal @segal_eran

Lockdown is always indicative of failure to manage the pandemic In Israel, managing the pandemic based on the capacity of the healthcare system was the one major mistake from which all else followed Define a capacity and you will reach it, at record levels and high death toll

Eran Segal @segal_eran

I summarised the mistakes, and what happened in the second wave here: twitter.com/segal_eran/sta…

Eran Segal @segal_eran

When the 2nd lockdown was imposed, many were skeptical, because it was less tight to begin with, and because people followed the guidelines less closely than the 1st But it worked. In fact, the surprise was that it worked faster and cases dropped quicker than the 1st lockdown pic.twitter.com/SxG33vIIG8

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Eran Segal @segal_eran

Cases dropped 10 days after the 2nd lockdown, compared to 20 days that it took for cases to drop after the 1st lockdown R0, the average number that each person infects, also dropped to lower levels in the 2nd lockdown pic.twitter.com/Gz0WD1Xtkf

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Eran Segal @segal_eran

A major surprise. What explains this? We don't really know, but maybe: 1. Masks, which are only now part of the guidelines 2. Closing activities with high spreading potential, mostly schools and gatherings of all types. This was common in both lockdowns

Eran Segal @segal_eran

3. Other activities that were open in the 2nd lockdown but not the 1st (e.g., workplaces without customers) probably matter less and perhaps do not even need to be part of a lockdown

Eran Segal @segal_eran

The second lockdown crushed all curves: cases, mild hospitalisations, moderate+severe, and severe ones R0 of cases was 0.65 (a 50% drop in cases every week), and R0 of hospitalisations was 0.8 (a 50% drop every two weeks) pic.twitter.com/s7ctixjfjg

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Eran Segal @segal_eran

As expected, the drop in severe hospitalisations followed the drop in cases by about a week pic.twitter.com/4udYYxdbvO

拡大

Eran Segal @segal_eran

At this rate we expect to reach 200 daily cases within 3 weeks, though since we started to release the lockdown this rapid drop is unlikely to continue pic.twitter.com/OL8ePeN8du

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Eran Segal @segal_eran

Positivity rate dropped within 3 weeks, from 94 cities with positivity rate above 10% to only 9 pic.twitter.com/28zlshCyKr

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Eran Segal @segal_eran

Three weeks after the lockdown, daily deaths also started declining pic.twitter.com/KlfyETbwXe

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Eran Segal @segal_eran

This is all at the country level. But Israel has Orthodox, Arabs, and all others Each had very different curves, suggesting that the pandemic does not necessarily behave the same across the country, and that differential policies across sectors may be effectively employed

Eran Segal @segal_eran

In the orthodox, there were nearly no cases prior to the 1st lockdown, the rise only started afterwards, and it took 20 days for the lockdown to kick in Before the 2nd lockdown there were many cases, it took 19 days for the lockdown to kick in, and the drop was sharper pic.twitter.com/bNaawfgoDr

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Eran Segal @segal_eran

The general population was over 80% of cases on the eve of the 1st lockdown, and it took 17 days until cases started dropping The 2nd lockdown lowered cases within 10 days and at a similar, perhaps even faster rate of drop in cases compared to the 1st pic.twitter.com/BNZOCsXfKk

拡大

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Eran Segal @segal_eran

Finally, the curve of the Arab population was unrelated to both lockdowns On the eve of the 1st, there were nearly no cases and even afterwards very few On the eve of the 2nd lockdown, there were many cases but the drop started a few days before the lockdown pic.twitter.com/xMEtmMVstX

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Eran Segal @segal_eran

So at least in Israel, lockdowns work, and second lockdowns work even better But Israel went to a lockdown because it had no choice: hospitalisations reached the capacity of the healthcare system. And that's a failure