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uchida_kawasaki
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Hiroshi Tsuji, MD, PhD, MPH🌏産業医
@Hiroshi_Tsuji
45ヶ国の新型コロナ死者と抗体検査の結果から補足されていない感染者数も加味した実際の致死率(感染致命割合IFR)を年代別に推測した論文がNature誌に。5-9歳最も低く、20代前半0.006%(1人未満/1万人)、40代前半0.075%、60代後半1.075%(1/93人)、80歳以上8.292%(1/12人)と激増。nature.com/articles/s4158… pic.twitter.com/DQQoMbC7D3
2020-11-03 09:08:37
拡大
拡大
Hiroshi Tsuji, MD, PhD, MPH🌏産業医
@Hiroshi_Tsuji
65歳未満のIFRは各国同様傾向で調査の精度を示す。65歳以上は国により差があった。日本は国としては調査国の中でIFR最も高く(1.09%, 95%CrI: 0.94-1.26%)、高齢者多いためと考えられる。45ヶ国34億人を代表する当調査では抗体検査から5.24%既感染で、日本は0.10%で最も低いグループ。 著者TWも役立つ twitter.com/meganodris/sta… pic.twitter.com/CIJb7Lqg49
2020-11-03 09:19:23
Megan O'Driscoll
@meganodris
Our analysis on age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2 has now been published @nature. We look at COVID-19 death data in 45 countries and 22 serostudies to investigate the consistency of infection & fatality patterns across countries nature.com/articles/s4158…
2020-11-02 19:56:33
拡大
拡大
Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The effect of age on the #COVID19 infection fatality rate. Just published @nature, data from 45 countries, 22 seroprevalence studies nature.com/articles/s4158… by @meganodris @hsalje @SCauchemez @fdlwang @datcummings @andrewazman and colleagues pic.twitter.com/pXtvZky4xA
2020-11-02 23:37:19
拡大
Megan O'Driscoll
@meganodris
Our analysis on age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2 has now been published @nature. We look at COVID-19 death data in 45 countries and 22 serostudies to investigate the consistency of infection & fatality patterns across countries nature.com/articles/s4158…
2020-11-02 19:56:33
Megan O'Driscoll
@meganodris
We find the age-distribution of reported COVID-19 deaths in younger individuals (<65) to be very consistent across countries but quite variable for deaths in older people.
2020-11-02 19:56:57
Megan O'Driscoll
@meganodris
Considering only deaths in <65s we see notable differences in IFR estimates as suggested by different seroprevalence studies. In some instances, applying IFR estimates from the lower end of the range to mortality data in hard-hit countries, would imply >100% attack rates!
2020-11-02 19:57:29
Megan O'Driscoll
@meganodris
We combine all the serostudies and age-specific mortality data to produce ensemble estimates of IFR and infected population proportions for each country, though it is crucial to consider the full range of uncertainty in these estimates as suggested by individual serostudies.
2020-11-02 19:58:01
Megan O'Driscoll
@meganodris
We estimate that high levels of transmission are likely to have occurred in some South American countries at the national-level but again, please consider the full range of uncertainty in these estimates suggested by individual serostudies when interpreting the results.
2020-11-02 19:58:51
Megan O'Driscoll
@meganodris
With huge thanks to all the team @hsalje, @SCauchemez, Gabriel Ribeiro Dos Santos, @fdlwang, @datcummings, @andrewazman, Juliette Paireau & Arnaud Fontanet!
2020-11-02 19:59:42
Megan O'Driscoll
@meganodris
@plenque Yes, on page 22 of the supplementary information! static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1…
2020-11-03 01:05:24
内田
@uchida_kawasaki
Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2 | Nature nature.com/articles/s4158… SARS-CoV-2の年齢別の死亡率と免疫パターン
2020-11-03 09:16:49