キーウ攻防戦分析(2022/4月初時点)

Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 24/ The Battle of Kyiv plan needed only one significant element to work. The refueling of their tanks, armored vehicles & self-propelled artillery. The distance from Belarus border to Kyiv is EXACTLY the maximum fuel they could carry. Needed refueling pic.twitter.com/Jxb47fbF3F

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 25/ If refueled after one day this 35th Combined Arms Army (that I estimated was roughly 70,000 men, 7,000 armored vehicles incl 2,100 tanks) would have enough fuel to complete the encirclement of Kyiv on Day 2, so to lay siege on Kyiv from 26th of February pic.twitter.com/QR5gizUkUZ

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 26/ Part 1 of this plan worked exactly as planned. The tanks crossed border into Ukraine on 24 February. By 25th February they had reached Hostomel, 13 miles (20km) from Kyiv. But they were out of fuel. They came to their designated refueling area... pic.twitter.com/sbKxHjEFgO

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 27/ Their promised fuel had not yet arrived. So they waited. They called up the convoy where that precious fuel was, and found out, the fuel trucks are less than an hour away. So they waited. And called an hour later. Delay. Four hours later. Still delayed pic.twitter.com/AEdwKLsvOe

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 28/ At some point the commander of 35th Combined Arms Army decided to postpone refueling to next day, told his troops to get some sleep. And called up his fuel trucks. They were still delayed, just 1 hour out, facing local resistance, it is a narrow road.. pic.twitter.com/W8jMGxe1g5

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 29/ The 70,000 men and 7,000 armored vehicles attacked from Belarus border, crossed 70 miles (115km) & reached their Day 1 target on schedule Had the fuel been there this army would have encircled Kyiv on Day 2. Something prevented that. The 40 mile convoy pic.twitter.com/7SLgZriz1b

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 30/ BATTLE OF 40 MILE CONVOY Had Russia figured out, on Feb 25, that this convoy of the fuel they needed, would never arrive, they would have ordered a replacement convoy, & received full fuel (and food and ammo) no later than Feb 28 Ukraine tricked them pic.twitter.com/faey0HKcx9

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 31/ With what would become known as 'the 40 mile convoy', the Ukrainian defenders of Kyiv, managed to play a cat-and-mouse game with gullible Russian commanders, to believe for TWO WEEKS that this convoy might reach the starved troops & tanks It saved Kyiv pic.twitter.com/Vna9sZiglA

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 32/ We now know, that the initial delays to 40 mile convoy were done by a specialist forest combat unit of only 30 commandos, led by Ukrainian Col Yaroslav Honchar. They used quad bikes to move fast in the swampy forest. They had night vision gear & drones pic.twitter.com/WJ6xc8bSLl

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 33/ The Ukrainian unit did what any convoy combat needs, they disabled (or destroyed) the first 3 vehicles at a narrow point on the road. It blocked passage forward. Then harassed the convoy as it grew longer and more congested. Fast hit-and-run attacks pic.twitter.com/lQVVdtuJvD

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 34/ At some point (I do not yet know when or where) at least one bridge, possibly several bridges were destroyed preventing the extremely heavy cargo trucks from passing over modest water obstacles. So Russians brought bridging gear, delay delay delay pic.twitter.com/f2P0jOv2qG

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 35/ The convoy that kept growing, to its full length of 40 miles (64 km) had eventually about 1,400 supply trucks jammed on this narrow road. They had a small security detail of about 2,000 Russian soldiers. And were never able to break through Ukrainians pic.twitter.com/GL7ORBdNNA

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 36/ The Russian command did not figure out how Ukraine was playing them until about March 11. And Russia sent several smaller replacement convoys on other roads, that reached the Russian 35th Combined Arms Army around 14 March. This delay saved Kyiv pic.twitter.com/gMzn7eojHU

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 37/ BATTLE OF IRPIN While the armored vehicles were without fuel and could not maneuver, the 35th Combined Arms Army did not sit idly. They would need to move from the planned encirclement inwards in any case, to get good artillery positions to shell Kyiv pic.twitter.com/3VtTcJeUzq

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 38/ So just a few miles from Hostomel towards Kyiv, is the next town on the suburbs of Kyiv, named Irpin (pop 30,000). The battle for Irpin would be the turning point in the Battle of Kyiv. It lasted one month pic.twitter.com/g6M1AmvHyu

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 39/ The Russian 35th Combined Arms Army arrived to edge of Irpin on 25th February. The assault on Irpin started on 27th Feb. The Ukrainians were there, ready, & determined to hold. This was test of unstoppable force vs immovable object. One month of combat pic.twitter.com/M9SesQIdVA

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 40/ Irpin is 11 miles (17km) from Kyiv. Russia never took Irpin. This was how close the massive invasion army of Russia got to Kyiv. 11 miles. Here is where Ukraine turned them back. On 28 March, Ukrainians had kicked all Russians out, and liberated Irpin pic.twitter.com/F1stzoVu1q

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 41/ THE SIEGE OF KYIV The 3 Day War Plan to defeat Ukraine involved encircling Kyiv. Day 1 of that encirclement plan went exactly according to plan & schedule. But the required fuel did not arrive to move forward on Day 2. So the Russian armor had to wait pic.twitter.com/MG9qmkIzeL

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 42/ The mighty 35th Combined Arms Army of Russia, with about 70,000 men, 7,000 armored vehicles, that crossed 70 miles (115km) in 24 hours, would have easily covered the two pincers the next 24 hours to encircle Kyiv, each only 20 miles (32km) of distance pic.twitter.com/Q7WJZVTXrd

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 43/ But once the Ukrainians knew where the Russians were, and saw exactly the force there, on satellite photos and drone video, Ukrainians built the required defenses to stop this force from encircling Kyiv. There were only 2 directions to go from Hostomel pic.twitter.com/lHUSMcmNr7

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 44/ Ukrainians knew, that heading West from Hostomel comes the Dnepro (Dnieper) river. Last town before the river is Vyshhorod. And next town East was Makariv. So the Ukrainians knew where Russia would go, once it was refueled pic.twitter.com/nbjKiNiVCK

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 45/ The Ukrainians saw on satellite images when the Russians finally figured out their cat-and-mouse game with the 40 mile convoy, when Russia finally sent replacement convoys on other routes. Ukraine shelled those too, but most got through pic.twitter.com/s6IqEbzlt3

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 46/ By March 16 the Russians had finally been able to refuel their armor stuck in Hostomel. And what remained of 70,000 men after 3 weeks of combat, could finally start the total encirclement of Kyiv. This would turn into an utter disaster pic.twitter.com/60XxyilWW2

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 47/ Towards the West the Ukrainians had urban combat defenses in the suburb of Vyshhorod now as heavily defended as Irpin. The Russians never got even a foothold in Vyshhorod. They had waited too long. But they also attacked East pic.twitter.com/wBZzhP7A51

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Tomi T Ahonen Moved to Post, Spoutible & Mastodon @tomiahonen

Battle of Kyiv Thread 48/ Because Ukraine knew, the path West was impassable, this 35th Combined Arms Army was forced to go East to encircle Kyiv, they were waiting in ambush near town Makariv pic.twitter.com/qbmDSUOVyk

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