Kamil Galeev氏の「ロシアはなぜ負けているのか？」：4月6日の戦況分析

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In fact, we do have the indirect evidence that this account of how the besieged Mariupol had been supplied is probably true. Consider this record of two Ukrainian helicopters going to attack the Russian oil depot in Belgorod on a very low height pic.twitter.com/fsuJq3TCWm

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Watch another record of the Ukrainian strike on the oil depot located in Russia proper. The fact that two Ukrainian helicopters managed to sneak to Russia undetected by any air defence systems had a profound effect on Russian public opinion pic.twitter.com/xSHfPeHPit

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Consider this chat with reactions on the attack on Belgorod. It's not representative ofc, but shows how the Russian public consciousness works: "It seems we need to negotiate and withdraw the troops. Forces are equal, futher hostilities will add more sanctions and casualties" pic.twitter.com/Ixhl8IJhuE

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Ukraine clearly punches above its weight. It has a competent and high morale infantry that holds its ground against the Russian artillery-centric army. It has aviation that supplies a besieged city unnoticed by the Russians and manages to attack Russia proper

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Finally, Ukraine had a military commandment that not only knew about the impending Russian invasion but also correctly predicted how it would proceed (based on Soviet models ofc) and prepared the effective countermoves that Russians didn't anticipate

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Retrospectively it all makes sense. Ukrainians suffered painful defeats in 2014 but were not destroyed. And whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Nothing sparks institutional evolution so much as a humuliating defeat and an existential threat that didn't break your spine

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

The poor quality of intelligence Putin had been getting on Ukraine (=they're all pro-Russian), his overestimation of Russian military capacities, make sense, too. Subordinates avoid reporting bad news to a dictator and tell him whatever he wants to hear. He's in a total bubble

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

The problem of poor poor feedback goes beyond the dictatorship vs democracy dichotomy. Much of misinformation results simply from the esprit de corps. Career officers don't question the established order and doctrine much and ofc defend them from being questioned by the laymen

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Analysts noticed the highly specialised & professionalized character of the Russian army in comparison with Ukrainian (or the American) one. However, they usually uncritically presumed this to be a comparative advantage of the Russian army. But what if it's the other way around?

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

What if the supposed advantages of the Russian military are in fact its disadvantages? Why do we presume that its insectoid specialisation, excessive professionalism and credentialism are necessarily an institutional advantage?

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

What if we overestimate Russian army simply because it is not being questioned by the laymen? American military machine for example is being constantly criticised by the media, think-tanks and the expertocracy which is only partially comprised by the (former) career officers

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Russian military doesn't have a channel for a negative feedback by outsiders. Of course, Russia has supposedly independent institutions that have to analyse its military capacities. But they aren't independent. Almost everyone who works there is a current of former career officer

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

This might explain why analysts overrated the Russian army so much. Russian army lived in a constant positive feedback loop with career officers congratulating other career officers with their amazing performance. Its weaknesses were unnoticed until the Ukrainian war started

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Rule of thumb. If an institution has too high reputation that can be a sign of weakness. Perhaps it exists in a constant positive feedback loop. In the absence of major failures it may accumulate negative mutations that remain unnoticed until a major catastrophe that destroys it

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

But how can people form *within* an institution all keep omerta and not disclose how badly it is doing in reality? Well, for two reasons. First of all, it is the esprit de corps and mutual responsibility. Nobody is really interested in the negative PR

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

We all know that architects build stuff primarily to impress other architects, academicians write stuff to impress other academicians and such a situation is typical for almost any professional corporation. But why do we think that the military would function any differently?

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

What if in the absence of an outside control by the laymen the military would work in a similar way as other professional corporations? Officers aim to impress other officers (and generals!) while public criticism of the army will hardly gain you sympathisers among the military

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Of course, individual officers might have quite an accurate information of how badly it's going on their specific direction of work. And yet, they would wrongly presume that in the other army branches and institutions they must be doing better. That reminds me of a certain joke

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Villagers decided to fill a barrel of vodka for a feast, so everyone had to contribute a bottle, pouring it into the barrel. Everyone realised: if I pour a bottle of water, it won't be noticed. So in the end they collected a huge barrel of water with zero vodka percentage

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

It is striking how much did the Western analysts overestimate the Russian army. It's even more striking how deeply did they underestimate the Ukrainian one. The Ukrainian military evolution since 2014 went almost completely unnoticed by the world. End of🧵