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uchida_kawasaki
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Health Nerd
@GidMK
2/n The report is here, and well worth reading. At the outset I should say that ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE IS UNCERTAIN The IMF is great, and has tried very hard to be accurate, but it is important to take care when reading these findings imf.org/en/Publication…
2020-10-13 08:57:15
Health Nerd
@GidMK
3/n The basic summation is simple: - lockdowns probably cause economic harm - large outbreaks of COVID-19 also cause harm - it is hard to disentangle this complexity - there are almost certainly situations in which lockdowns are beneficial to the economy pic.twitter.com/IaDilRtB8Y
2020-10-13 08:57:16
拡大
Health Nerd
@GidMK
4/n On the first point, it is quite clear that lockdowns are associated with greater economic decline. Countries with harsher lockdowns saw worse financial outcomes pic.twitter.com/X4qrhJ79c6
2020-10-13 08:57:17
拡大
Health Nerd
@GidMK
5/n BUT, as the IMF notes, lockdowns were not the only issue! When cases rose very quickly, people VOLUNTARILY reduced their mobility to similar levels as when governments took action
2020-10-13 08:57:17
Health Nerd
@GidMK
6/n The IMF modelling suggests that lockdowns were associated with a short-lived drop of ~25% in mobility However, for every doubling of daily COVID-19 cases, there was an associated LONG-lived drop of ~2.5% pic.twitter.com/8eOAjBR0Ou
2020-10-13 08:57:18
拡大
Health Nerd
@GidMK
7/n In fact, the IMF estimates that in advanced economies this VOLUNTARY restriction had the biggest impact on mobility (and thus the economy) NOT lockdowns pic.twitter.com/whqVhqspw6
2020-10-13 08:57:19
拡大
Health Nerd
@GidMK
8/n This leads to an interesting point, which is that if people feel like they are still at risk from COVID-19, the impact of relaxing restrictions economically is very low, but the impact on new cases is quite high So, relaxing lockdowns early may be DETRIMENTAL economically pic.twitter.com/swUsKHua3U
2020-10-13 08:57:20
拡大
拡大
Health Nerd
@GidMK
9/n Depressingly, this also means that there is no easy answer here - despite what the contrarians have been saying, it's unlikely that simply lifting all restrictions will lead to immediate economic recovery pic.twitter.com/ah34q1tjUZ
2020-10-13 08:57:21
拡大
Health Nerd
@GidMK
10/n Also depressingly, the IMF found strong evidence that the negative impact of lockdowns was felt disproportionately, with women and younger people bearing the brunt of the downturn pic.twitter.com/MSnDzTqDQ5
2020-10-13 08:57:22
拡大
Health Nerd
@GidMK
11/n There are also some very important implications here for public policy in terms of HOW lockdowns and other measures are introduced For example, while all lockdowns carry economic harms, some may not confer public health benefits!
2020-10-13 08:57:22
Health Nerd
@GidMK
12/n While locking down was usually associated with a reduction in COVID-19 cases, the IMF found that in places where there were already many cases the impact was much lower pic.twitter.com/P9dyKhKsSh
2020-10-13 08:57:23
拡大
Health Nerd
@GidMK
13/n Moreoever, lockdown STRINGENCY and LENGTH was important. Protracted mild lockdowns were associated with long tail ends of economic harm, but a much smaller reduction in cases pic.twitter.com/qic5qmNw2O
2020-10-13 08:57:24
拡大
Health Nerd
@GidMK
14/n On the other hand, short sharp lockdowns tended to substantially reduce cases with less economic damage (because fewer cases means a faster recovery), leading to this recommendation pic.twitter.com/ZyluGMIKGQ
2020-10-13 08:57:25
拡大
Health Nerd
@GidMK
15/n And important to note that this work is subject to very substantial limitations, and it is really quite hard to disentangle the relationships here pic.twitter.com/UMUmEwoXYt
2020-10-13 08:57:26
拡大
mm
@tyonarock
IMF国際通貨基金のレポート ・ロックダウンは経済に悪影響を与える ・COVIDの感染蔓延自体も同様に経済に悪影響を与える（自発的自粛） ・ある状況下では、ロックダウンは経済的に有利に働く ・ロックダウンを行うのであれば、厳しく短いものが良い。ルーズで長いのは経済的に不利 twitter.com/GidMK/status/1…
2020-10-14 17:51:03
Health Nerd
@GidMK
16/n To sum up: - lockdowns cause harms - so does COVID-19 - in some situations, a lockdown may be economically beneficial - if lockdowns are pursued, short tight ones may be better than long loose ones - more research is needed to discern precisely which policies are best pic.twitter.com/42W90wvNMw
2020-10-13 08:57:27
Health Nerd
@GidMK
16/n To sum up: - lockdowns cause harms - so does COVID-19 - in some situations, a lockdown may be economically beneficial - if lockdowns are pursued, short tight ones may be better than long loose ones - more research is needed to discern precisely which policies are best pic.twitter.com/42W90wvNMw
2020-10-13 08:57:27
拡大
Health Nerd
@GidMK
17/n It's also worth noting, as the IMF does, that other public health policies play an important role that is hard to capture in this analysis. Places with really good testing and contact tracing may avoid many of these issues entirely
2020-10-13 09:03:24
Health Nerd
@GidMK
28/n Alternatively, as was the case where I live, a short sharp lockdown to improve testing/tracing capacity may be a very good option long-term
2020-10-13 09:03:25
内田
@uchida_kawasaki
2020.5.1 新型コロナウイルスPCR検査は国民全員に行うべきなのか | The SPELL blog spell.umin.jp/thespellblog/?… 病院総合診療医 & EBMer/EBM educator 南郷栄秀 典型的なPCR検査抑制プロパガンダ
2020-10-13 17:44:23