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uchida_kawasaki
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内田
@uchida_kawasaki
インドと韓国各々による接触者追跡に新型コロナウイルス感染経路の分析 #家庭内感染 #旅行 #車内 #休校 (2020.7.20作成) - Togetter togetter.com/li/1562140
2020-08-02 07:12:36⬆ インドで同様の分析を行った結果
本まとめの論文(への指摘内容とほぼ同じに)
h■m■■k■(秘密保護中･反戦争法案)
@ytkhamaoka
The risk of COVID-19 transmission in train passengers: an epidemiological and modelling study academic.oup.com/cid/article/do… 中国の高速鉄道内での感染を分析｡
2020-07-30 19:34:33
カラ丸
@karamaru_td
中国の高速鉄道で2334人の患者と72093人の濃厚接触者を調べた。3列、横に5席以内に座っている場合の感染率は平均0.32% 同じ列だと1.5% 違う列だと0.14% 隣に座ってる場合3.5% 離れるほど感染率は減り、共に過ごす時間が30分増えると平均0.15% 隣の席の場合1.3%増える twitter.com/Lai_CDC/status…
2020-07-31 04:54:07
Shengjie Lai
@Lai_CDC
How high is the risk of #COVID19 transmission among train passengers, by seat locations, co-travel time, seat re-used? See new @WorldPopProject paper on CID: academic.oup.com/cid/article/do… pic.twitter.com/dSxCm5TTY8
2020-07-30 18:24:43
カラ丸
@karamaru_td
鉄道で座ってる席が近く、長く乗っている人ほどコロナ感染率が高い、というこの研究は、家族は座っている席が近い事が多いということしか意味しないようだ・・・ twitter.com/DiseaseEcology… twitter.com/karamaru_td/st…
2020-08-01 06:40:01
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
Thus, while I think the dataset is amazing & authors did fantastic job w/ careful analysis, I think results simply tell us about where family members try to sit in relation to each other, & not about virus transmission on trains.
2020-07-31 03:15:55
ショーンKY
@kyslog
電車の感染パターンの分析の論文で、「乗車駅（と降車駅）が同じで、かつ近くに座っていた人」＝おそらく家族では感染が生じやすくなるのに対して、そうでないと長時間一緒に座っていても感染が生じやすくなる傾向がないことから、電車内では感染は起きていないのでは？と示唆するデータ。 twitter.com/DiseaseEcology…
2020-07-31 19:34:14
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
Here's the comparison. There is no effect of co-travel time on attack rate for passengers that don't share start/end destinations (right), but strong pattern for those that do (left). Would like to seating fig presented same way. I'd guess it is same. pic.twitter.com/92cyAcbg8Z
2020-07-31 03:15:53
ショーンKY
@kyslog
元々「NYCでは地下鉄駅に沿って感染が拡大しているように見えるが、地下鉄が運んでいるだけなのか地下鉄内で感染しているのかは分からん」みたいな論文があって、海外でも議論になってた話ではあります。 twitter.com/yuzu_tonbo/sta…
2020-07-31 20:19:51
けんもう新型コロナ対策本部
@kenmomd
結論としては、やはり電車内での感染リスクは高くないだろうということになるんだけど、この人ほんとすごい。有益な情報しかない。twitterでここまでレビューするか。 twitter.com/diseaseecology…
2020-07-31 19:43:03
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
New paper examining transmission of #COVID19 on trains as function of trip duration & distance (rows vs columns). Data are analyzed assuming transmission happens on train but key figure suggests transmission is happening elsewhere. Would love comment from @Lai_CDC Short thread. twitter.com/Lai_CDC/status…
2020-07-31 03:15:51
内田
@uchida_kawasaki
risk of COVID-19 transmission in train passengers: an epidemiological and modelling study | Clinical Infectious Diseases | Oxford Academic academic.oup.com/cid/article/do… アクセプト済み論文：列車の乗客におけるCOVID-19感染のリスク：疫学およびモデリング研究
2020-07-31 07:16:40
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
New paper examining transmission of #COVID19 on trains as function of trip duration & distance (rows vs columns). Data are analyzed assuming transmission happens on train but key figure suggests transmission is happening elsewhere. Would love comment from @Lai_CDC Short thread. twitter.com/Lai_CDC/status…
2020-07-31 03:15:51
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
At 1st glance, dataset is amazing. Index cases: infected people who took train. Contacts - potential 2ndary cases - are passengers who sat w/in 3 rows or 5 columns of index case. Metric/Response variable: did contact get sick in next 14d (attack rate in %).
2020-07-31 03:15:52
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
As in all contact tracing studies, index vs contact (primary vs secondary case) is based on person w/ earlier date of symptom onset. Obviously not ideal since incubation period is 2-14d (& can get infector/infectee backwards) but unless one has more info, it's what we have.
2020-07-31 03:15:52
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
Paper presents fraction of contacts infected w/ trip duration & distance in both x-y directions (seat rows vs columns). At 1st I thought this study could be amazingly informative for understanding risk in space/time. But 1 piece of missing data & 1 fig suggests something else.
2020-07-31 03:15:52
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
Crucial question is: Is there any evidence transmission actually occurred on train. 1st glance suggests yes. Strong relationship b/w travel time & attack rate, as we'd expect if transmission occurred on train. But... pic.twitter.com/oVp2EKGvtj
2020-07-31 03:15:52
拡大
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
Key piece of missing data is relationship b/w passengers. Data were anonymous so no info on whether adjacent passengers were more likely in same household & patterns just reflect prob that contact is in same household (higher for adjacent seats & nearby rows).
2020-07-31 03:15:53
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
Authors show supplemental figure that I think makes it clear that study is measuring relationships among people, not transmission on trains. Authors' brilliant idea was to look at patterns for co-seated passengers that do or don't start/end at same destinations vs those that do.
2020-07-31 03:15:53
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
If all transmission is occurring on train, pattern should be same for both. If substantial transmission occurs on train but some away from train, pattern should be similar but diluted. But if no transmission on train then pattern should be absent for people w/ diff destinations.
2020-07-31 03:15:53
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
Here's the comparison. There is no effect of co-travel time on attack rate for passengers that don't share start/end destinations (right), but strong pattern for those that do (left). Would like to seating fig presented same way. I'd guess it is same. pic.twitter.com/92cyAcbg8Z
2020-07-31 03:15:53
拡大
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
So then how can we explain cool patterns shown in paper? Sadly, very simply. If I want to take train w/ spouse, where would we sit? As close together as possible, & adjacent rather than in diff rows. If can't sit together, sit 1 column seat apart in same row.
2020-07-31 03:15:54
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
If can't get that seat, then same column, 1 row apart. I've had many experiences on airplanes when traveling alone where family asks me to swap seat so they can be together & their seat is 1-2 row or column seats away.
2020-07-31 03:15:54
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
How do we explain increasing attack rate w/ travel time? Also pretty simple. What are odds that strangers sit together for short trip (commuting, short business trip)? Pretty high. What are odds for 8 hr trip? Much lower (or vice versa - more likely to take long trip w/ fam)
2020-07-31 03:15:54
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
Thus, while I think the dataset is amazing & authors did fantastic job w/ careful analysis, I think results simply tell us about where family members try to sit in relation to each other, & not about virus transmission on trains.
2020-07-31 03:15:55
A Marm Kilpatrick
@DiseaseEcology
Put another way, I think it's possible there were zero transmission events from these index passengers to contacts ON TRAIN & 100% of transmission could have occurred off the train in households/other settings & I don't see how we can distinguish these possibilities.
2020-07-31 03:15:55