Kamil Galeev氏によるロシアの未来、「3：国家の離婚」

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

5. The process of disintegration is likely to happen in a few iterations. The less regions keep obeying to Moscow and paying taxes to it, the less motivation the other will have cost-benefit wise. Richer regions have more motivation to launch it than the poorer ones

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

6. Contrary to the popular opinion, the disintegration and the formation of new states is likely to happen on the regional, rather than "ethnic" or "racial" basis. It's highly unlikely that the disintegration goes along the ethnic lines

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

7. Historically speaking, instruments tend to evolve into the institutions. In particular, administrative borders tend to evolve into the national ones. Much like in the Latin America, the disintegration will go along the administrative, rather than ethnic borders

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

8. New states will likely look as a collection of N (N≥1) former Russian regions. Former administrative demarkation between provinces will turn into the national borders Administrative borders becoming the national ones is Lindy

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

9. Ethnicity, race and culture is *not* enough for the new states to work out. For them to succeed they must be able to pay their bills. Ergo, the principle of economic clusters will be at least as important for defining their borders as the ethnic or cultural one pic.twitter.com/bKXu1Um9UL

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

10. The key question is not the Caucasus or even Volga question. It is the question of Siberia. Siberia is the jewel in the Russian crown that pays the bills of the empire. Should it keep control over Siberia, it can easily win back everything else. Should it lose it, it is done pic.twitter.com/IpWlOo3Ge4

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

That should be enough to introduce the idea. I will elaborate on details in separate materials. End of 🧵

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

National Divorce: Q and A In this thread I am going to cover some of the more common misconceptions about the current state of affairs in Russia and potential scenarios of its breakup. I am going to start with the most common objection: "Isn't Russia like 80% ethnic Russian?"🧵 pic.twitter.com/lneNX66Fd2

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Both honest sceptics (mostly foreigners) and more biased critics (mostly Moscow literati) love pointing to the official census results. Indeed, official censuses picture Russia as almost homogenous country with 77% pop being ethnic Russian How reliable are these results though? pic.twitter.com/m2RWeA9Cb4

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Much of aggregate data from Russia/China etc. looks very appealing. That's until we start disaggregating it. Aggregate figures can be just as reliable as the raw data they're based upon. Therefore, Russian/Chinese statistics too often have the "Garbage in, Garbage out" problem

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Let me give some personal experience of how ethnic data is being collected. During my lifetime Russia has two official censuses - in 2002, 2010. Both times they tried to designate me as "Russian" (despite my obviously Tatar name) and backed off only after I initiated the conflict

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In 2002 I was a primary school student. They distributed questionnaires in a class and instructed us how to fill them "Национальность - русский, русская" (Ethnicity - Russian (f/m) - I'm a Tatar actually - Are you SURE about that? - Yes Everyone else in a class just complied

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Next census happened in 2010. This time a pollster came to our home. He asked lots of questions - names, ages, occupations. Regarding ethnicity though, he started filling "Russian" WITHOUT EVEN ASKING. We noticed it, forced him to through out the questionaires and fill them anew

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Interestingly enough, neither I, nor my family members, nor a number of my classmates could be designated as "Russian" judging by our names. Still, all were described as "Russian" by default. Why? Doesn't the Russian state want to see objective data? If so, what does it want?

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Well, they want to produce this map. The goal of census is not to produce some "objective results" for the world to see. The goal of census is to produce the map that would legitimise the current state of affairs "It's all Russians" map should legitimise the rule of Moscow pic.twitter.com/8lKo7ZDPkb

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Now why does "it's all Russians" map legitimise the rule of Moscow? Well, because of the hive mind assumption. If all "Russians" comprise a hivemind that can't see themselves outside of Russia and 77% pop are Russians, then yes, the empire is very robust It's a legitimising myth pic.twitter.com/pQitSrzVtD

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Even more importantly, homogeneity + hivemind theory legitimises the autocratic rule. Quasirepresentation of a homogenous hivemind, is the best legitimising tool of an autocracy or a wannabe autocracy That's why both Putin and the "liberal opposition" share this theory pic.twitter.com/WIuCsG2oJ5

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

As "Homogeneity + Hivemind" theory legitimises the autocracy, liberal opposition would defend it fervently "It is absolutely the same culture" "It is a very homogenous space" They defend the homogeneity thesis because that's their license to speak on behalf of the hivemind pic.twitter.com/hP9F2xYUml

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

That's a good litmus test for the wannabe autocrats. They are going to legitimise their rule speaking on behalf of the homogenous hivemind. If empire is so homogenous, then it can be perfectly represented by a bunch of courtiers in Moscow Homogeneity + Hivemind -> Autocracy pic.twitter.com/AV273uBt0G