Kamil Galeev氏によるロシアの未来、「3：国家の離婚」

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Comparison with neighbouring Bashkortostan is very telling. In Soviet times Bashkortostan generally fared better. After 1991 it fared much worse One reason is that in Bashkortostan they allowed Moscow companies to privatise local industry, while in Tatarstan they chose not to pic.twitter.com/sBgWxYW1tl

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In Tatarstan a few ruling families divided pretty much all of Soviet industry among themselves. No Moscow business was allowed to privatise anything. For this reason people in neighbouring regions envy Tatarstan very much I tell this without irony and not as a joke

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Reforms of the 1990s could not result in some "fair" Sweden-style system. They were not designed this way. They could result only in landlordism. So the real choice was between: Presentee landlordism vs Absentee landlordism If you lived under any, you'll know the difference

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Absentee landlordism = company registered in Moscow (paying taxes there) and owners living in Geneva (spending their rent there). That's the golden standard of Russian governance and that's how most of the Russian regions are run. Locals get the poisoned air, and that's it

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Presentee landlordism is somewhat different. Once in DC I met a former N. company employee who dissuaded his higher-ups from investing to Tatneft. Unlike his superiors, he had travelled around Russia extensively. Specifically, he spent many hours driving through Tatarstan

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

First thing he noticed is that infrastructure was obviously better than in any of the proximities. When asking his companions how it's paid for, they'd usually say it's paid by Tatneft (local oil company). Hence, he deduce Tatneft is not really a private company, but more of a...

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Local government's wallet to finance public spending. Shareholders just can't get too high dividends. Any "surplus" would be taken out for public spending - from road repairments to research grants Kremlin-controlled oil companies are run *more* in the interest of shareholders

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

That illustrates the difference between presentee landlordism (local elite appropriates everything) and the absentee landlordism (Moscow elite appropriates everything). Unlike most other regions, Tatarstan elites were able to implement presentee landlordism scenario

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

One major consequence was the renegotiation of ethnic hierarchy. Until 1989 Russian community was indisputably dominant and the Tatar one certainly inferior one. After 1991 this balance started to crumble Once Tatarstan got richer neighbours started looking at them up, that's it

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Public spending was a major tool for renegotiating the hierarchy. I strongly recommend this book: this author got that the Beautification of Kazan was not simply urbanist policy. It was political and it changed the hierarchy books.openedition.org/ceup/1752?lang… pic.twitter.com/XdAeOU60IA

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Until 1989 most Russians looked down upon Tatars. After 1991 though most neighbouring cities (and especially towns) which got under other governments fall into complete desolation. The simple fact that Tatarstan institutions were well-run changed the balance of status & power

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

As a result, the ethic balance started shifting too. Until 1989 most mixed heritage children were given Russian names and adopted Russian identity. Since 1991 the number of those who adopted Tatar one increased quickly Ethnic hierarchy -> Ethnic balance

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Case of Tatarstan is very illustrative. People see ethnic balance as primordial. That's not necessarily true. Ethnic balance depends upon ethnic hierarchy. And ethnic hierarchy can be renegotiated by as little as having a well-run city amidst the post-Soviet desert

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

And that is exactly why the Kremlin aims *not* to allow any well-run cities to emerge amidst the post-Soviet desert. Any city, any region that becomes noticeably richer & better-run there others will inevitably get prouder, its identity will grow stronger. It'll become a danger

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

*Any* region living obviously better than others -> The rise of regionalism -> Activation (or invention?) of regional identity -> Neighbours may start emulating it That's why Moscow should keep everyone in poverty and would not allow any regional economy to blossom

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Russia must be desolate to remain united. Any region growing too much might threaten the power of Moscow. So Moscow must keep everyone poor to maintain integrity of the empire. This is the major reason for the national divorce: so that *some* colonies could get a chance The end pic.twitter.com/A5D9BX2BcT