環境活動家 ジョージ・モンビオ の述べる、世界の変え方（2023年現在、日本の左翼（左翼活動家・左翼政党）の考えの根底にあるもの）

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

Some prominent people are now arguing that, for climate movements to succeed, they have to reach across the political spectrum, appealing to conservative as much as radical and liberal values. I believe this reflects a mistaken theory of change. This thread seeks to explain why.

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

The big shift in the past year is the emergence of a truly global climate movement, and the sense that its leadership is now coming from the Global South. This is as it should be: poor nations are hit hardest by climate breakdown and their voices have for too long been unheard.

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

This is where hope lies. A global crisis demands a genuinely global response, led by those on the front lines of the disaster, and this is what is happening, at great speed. It’s hard to see the necessary shift happening any other way.

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

But just as we see this movement building, we are told we also need to appeal to conservatives in the rich world. If conservatism here means anything, it means sustaining the power and dominance of the rich nations, and of rich people within the rich nations.

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

At the heart of the global movement is the notion of climate justice. This means, among other things, that the remaining carbon budget is distributed fairly, that polluting nations pay compensation for loss and damage, and that the rich no longer live at the expense of the poor.

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

These ideas are fundamentally at odds with the conservative mindset, which seeks to preserve inequality and to claim the lion’s share of rights and resources for a privileged minority.

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

In other words, you can’t have both. You can’t have a genuinely global climate movement that appeals to people who want to preserve minority privilege in the rich nations. You have to choose.

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

But this is by no means the end of the problem. To understand the other ways in which the theory of change is flawed, think of one of the most successful recent movements: #MeToo, which rapidly altered social attitudes towards sexual assault, misogyny and everyday sexism.

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

Imagine that its leading lights had said “we also have to appeal to sexists.” Imagine they had trimmed their message to accommodate existing attitudes. How effective would they have been? How would they have inspired women to rise up and generate the wave of change?

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

Similarly, you might imagine how successful the civil rights movement would have been if it had sought to appeal to racists, or the anti-apartheid movement if it had tried to accommodate the views of people who wanted to sustain minority rule.

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

OK, you might ask, so what do we do about people with a fundamentally different worldview? We don’t. As a wide range of observational studies and, now, a set of empirical results, suggests, you need to reach ~25% of the population to trigger societal change.

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

This is the fundamental principle behind effective movements: you build a committed minority until it passes a social tipping point. You don’t appeal to the status quo. You change the status quo.

George Monbiot @GeorgeMonbiot

#MeToo did not achieve total victory. Sexism, misogyny and sexual assault still happen. But those who seek to defend or dismiss them now look like dinosaurs. Their groups are islands in a sea of change, whereas it was previously the victims who were isolated and shunned.